6 Players to Avoid in Fantasy Football Drafts

Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I absolutely love the skill set Mike Evans brings to the game, but at his current average draft position (ADP) of 29th overall, there are just too many red flags to justify the investment.

If you've been watching the Buccaneers this preseason, you will have noticed a few things. The offensive line is terrible, Jameis Winston is very inconsistent, and Mike Evans hasn't made a catch. Oh, and now he's injured and out until Week 1 with a hamstring strain.

And while preseason isn't the time to overreact, it is still beneficial to observe and dissect the information being revealed.

While Evans was incredible at times as a rookie, he also saw most of his production in just three games against some of the worst pass defenses in the NFL in Washington, Atlanta, and whoever the Browns lined up opposite Joe Haden. In those games, Evans totaled 458 yards and four touchdowns, exceeding 100 yards in each game, the only times he accomplished that all season.

That being said, everything about Evans' Reception NEP scores indicate that we are dealing with a future star, but perhaps the future isn't now. To expect him to improve upon his rookie season is to expect Winston to have a historically good rookie season. Like Andrew Luck good.

"But didn't Josh Gordon have an amazing season with terrible quarterback play?" is what many are thinking! But in 2013, Cleveland quarterbacks combined to throw for more than 4,000 yards and 26 touchdowns, and Gordon didn't have a running mate as talented as Vincent Jackson to steal targets.

Speaking of Jackson, he led the Buccaneers in targets and receptions in 2014, and while Evans was the more efficient and effective player according to our metrics, a large part of that had to do with the attention Jackson saw from top defensive backs.

Expect much of that attention to now find Evans, which could make success much harder to come by. Regardless, throughout this preseason Jackson has appeared to be the top receiver for Winston, which further limits the immediate upside that the former Aggie might have.

Of course anything is possible. But the Buccaneers' terrible offensive line is slated to start rookies at left tackle and right guard and just lost their best lineman to injury in right tackle Demar Dotson. Things just don't look promising. Evans may be an elite player, but we may not see the numbers to support that until Winston gets his bearings in the NFL.

Until then, I'm willing to pass at his high ADP.