6 Players to Avoid in Fantasy Football Drafts
This past week I visited the fine dining establishment known as Wendy's for the first time in years. It was 11:00 p.m., I was hungry, and I remembered how much I used to love their $0.99 Jr. Bacon Cheeseburger. I figured for less than five dollars I could eat like a wealthy peasant once again, so I swung through the drive thru with anticipation and, I'll admit it, genuine excitement.
But the establishment I once praised for its value and "good enough" food quickly ended that excitement, with a menu that no longer featured several items for under a buck. That delicious Jr. Bacon Cheeseburger that was, admittedly, more bread than anything else, was now listed at a $1.99! I can only assume it's because they added gold flakes to the mustard or something, but I'll never know for sure -- because I left that drive thru and went straight to Taco Bell.
Did I regret the digestive implications of that decision? Of course I did! But the value I received from The Bell allowed me to feel substantially more comfortable with what was going to be a mistake no matter what I had consumed that night.
So what does this have to do with your upcoming fantasy football draft? Everything! And even if you don't believe me, at least I will have enlightened you to the rising prices at Wendy's.
You see, at Taco Bell, I can get a bean burrito for $1.29. It may not taste as good as a Jr. Bacon Cheeseburger, but it's cheaper, just as filling, and comparably edible. At 11:00 p.m., it does the job. So why spend the extra money at Wendy's when you can find better value just across the street?
The same goes for a fantasy football draft. When a talented but flawed player is available for a reasonable price, you pounce. But if that same player is hyped to the point where his flaws are being ignored and his price is skyrocketing, go find the bean burrito.
The reality is, every player in fantasy has value. Yes, even the mediocre ones. What is important for us to do is to determine what that value is. To evaluate all the data points we have received throughout the long and drawn out offseason and to do our best to accurately assess where a player should be taken.
Sometimes average draft position (ADP) data doesn't make a lot of sense based on what we've learned during training camp and the preseason, forcing fantasy owners to place an "avoid" tag on particular players. This doesn't inherently mean that these players are terrible at football or won't contribute on the field but instead that their value is over-inflated to an unreasonable level based on the red flags that surround that player.
For example, last year Montee Ball was being selected 10th overall in drafts due more to his opportunity in a Peyton Manning offense than anything he had done on the field. He was a player I avoided at that price because it was far too risky based on the data points we had at the time.
Giovani Bernard had one unbelievable run on national television and he became an overnight sensation despite offseason warning signs that he could be a part time player.
Remember Cordarrelle Patterson? Yeah...
If you're not sure who those players are this year in fantasy football, don't worry. We've identified some likely players who will fail to provide a strong return on your investment. Start the slideshow to see which six NFLers are worth avoiding in 2015 based on their current draft position.