6 Players to Avoid in Fantasy Football Drafts

Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers

Ben Roethlisberger is a great player and a likely Hall of Famer, but the fifth-round pick you are forced to spend on him is far too pricey for a player whose highest fantasy finish was fifth in 2014, and who has never had a higher finish than eighth in the decade prior.

While the expectation is that Big Ben could improve upon his career best season, the red flags are piling up surrounding this offense and making it difficult to justify investing such a high pick the Steelers signal caller. And that's even if you don't believe in a late-round quarterback strategy (which I do).

To begin with, the Steelers offense will be without star running back Le'Veon Bell for the first two games, and without deep threat and rising star receiver Martavis Bryant for the first four games. Remember, Roethlisberger's career numbers were heavily inflated by two six-touchdown performances, both which came after Bryant was integrated into the offense.

Bell was the most effective receiving back in the NFL, and according to our metrics was nearly twice as valuable as his next closest competitor in Reception NEP and Target NEP. Losing him for two games significantly hurts this passing game and the effectiveness it can have both targeting the backs and off of play action.

In addition to those early absences, the team will be without their best offensive lineman in center Maurkice Pouncey for at least the first 10 games of the season with a broken leg. The team has demonstrated an ability to win without him, but can they be a dominant offense without him? Because you're not drafting Roethlisberger high to be good, but to be great.

Finally, and perhaps most importantly, the Steelers have by far the most difficult schedule in the NFL in terms of opposing pass defenses after having one of the easiest in 2014. They go from playing probably the two worst division in football in the NFC South and AFC South, to playing the much more difficult AFC West and NFC West.

And while the Steelers have the weapons to weather the storm and win games, all of these factors imply that building on his career 2014 season will be difficult for Roethlisberger. While I think he will still have a good year, especially late when his weapons return, if you are taking him in the fifth round you are banking on much more than that.

With so many strong options at the quarterback position later in drafts, Big Ben is a player to avoid at his current ADP in 2015.