6 Players to Avoid in Fantasy Football Drafts

Justin Forsett, RB, Baltimore Ravens

Justin Forsett had a fantastic season in 2014, emerging after the Ray Rice suspension to rush for 1,266 yards and eight touchdowns while starting just 14 games.

According to Net Expected Points (NEP), our our in-house metric that compares a player's production to league expectation level, Forsett ranked fourth in the NFL in Rushing NEP per rush for backs with more than 100 carries. Only Jamaal Charles, C.J. Anderson and Marshawn Lynch were more efficient last season, and his success earned him a new contract heading into 2015. You can read more about NEP in our glossary.

So why on earth would I be avoiding him? Because there simply isn't historical precedent for a 29-year-old journeyman running back breaking out in year seven and building upon that in the years to follow. And if I'm selecting a player in the first or second round of a draft, I'd like to feel a little bit more secure in my investment instead of betting on history to be made.

After looking at the top 15 backs in each season from 2004 to 2014, only Chester Taylor and perhaps Lamont Jordan had a similar career arc to Forsett. Both broke out in the fifth year of their NFL career, but both failed to repeat or build on their magical breakout seasons.

Beyond that, Forsett is an underwhelming athlete with limited size, which doesn't bode well for a player expected to shoulder a large workload in the running and passing game. Listed at only 5'8", 195 pounds, expecting him to hold up this late in his career just seems like a leap of faith.

While many seem to be excited for what Forsett will be able to do in the Marc Trestman offense (see Forte, Matt), from the beginning of the year the Ravens and Trestman have maintained that this offense isn't changing -- not drastically, at least. If preseason is any indication, they aren't lying.

In their Week 3 preseason "tune up" game, the Ravens only threw one pass to a running back (Javorius Allen), and Forsett has only one reception for four yards through three games.

Heck, we don't even know how Trestman will do as a play caller and coach in the running back friendly zone blocking scheme that Kubiak employed. Denver certainly didn't have much success after he left in 2005, with only one back rushing for over 1,000 yards in Denver from 2006-2010 (Tatum Bell at 1,025) until Willis McGahee broke the trend in 2011 with Tim Tebow.

Finally, Forsett's three year contract extension was hardly a vote of confidence, paying him less than Mark Ingram, C.J. Spiller, Ryan Mathews, Shane Vereen or Frank Gore received in free agency, all backs he outperformed. The Ravens then drafted Allen, who has a similar skill set, and talked up second year back Lorenzo Taliaferro for his goal line and short yardage ability.

Would it shock me if Forsett had a good season? No, it wouldn't. But I'd rather not spend a second-round pick betting on a marginal athlete who has only one good season on his resume since 2008.