5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 10

Minnesota Vikings' Rushing Offense

Technically, this section is supposed to be an endorsement of using Jerick McKinnon this week. But because we are not bound by legislation nor by rules, we're going to use it to explore the appeal of a grouping of running backs in this same pricing tier. This is an open rebellion. Welcome to the resistance.

If you go to FanDuel and check out the running backs priced between $7,000 and $6,500, you're going to see some faces that have been popping the past few weeks. Specifically, you'll see both Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram there, but we've also got Carlos Hyde and Devonta Freeman. Right between all of that juiciness is McKinnon at $6,600.

If we're trying to look at the "nutritional facts" of a running back, the first place we should start is by looking at the workload they receive within their respective offense. We want guys who are getting the ball often, giving them more chances to bust a long one and propel us up the scoreboard.

So -- with a little help from numberFire's premium daily fantasy tools -- here's the workload each back has received over his team's past three games. Carry market share is the percentage of team carries he has handled, and overall market share is the percentage of offensive snaps on which he has received a carry or a target.

The first thing that should jump out here is that both Ingram and Hyde are getting more work than their price would dictate. That makes them worthy of investment.

So, why would we be gushing over McKinnon here? It's a combination of a few factors.

First, Ingram's market share took a hit on Sunday after he lost two fumbles in Week 8. He and Kamara both handled 28.8% of the workload in Week 9, which lowers his appeal a bit. He's still fully in play because he's a high-usage back tied to Drew Brees, but it also opens the door for McKinnon a bit.

Second, Hyde's offense is nowhere near the same level as McKinnon's. The San Francisco 49ers rank 30th in overall offensive efficiency, according to our metrics, while the Minnesota Vikings are 10th. High-efficiency offenses produce more touchdown drives, so we want to get our running-back exposure there when possible. Hyde's work in the passing game means we should be using him, but there's plenty of reason to love McKinnon, too.

The most interesting comparison from the table above is McKinnon relative to Kamara. If we assume that Kamara's usage spike in Week 9 is legit, then he and McKinnon wind up being pretty similar assets. They're backs who get both rushing and passing volume in efficient offenses and are slight road favorites. If Latavius Murray pushes you off of McKinnon, then Ingram should do the same with Kamara.

Because McKinnon was on a bye last week, his recent exploits aren't exactly fresh in our minds, meaning he likely won't come with the heavy ownership that Kamara figures to have. But McKinnon has scored at least 22 FanDuel points in three of four games since Dalvin Cook's season-ending injury, and we'll take that all day at his price. There's just a lot to like here.

The matchup here is pretty solid for McKinnon, too. Washington has allowed the 27th-ranked Success Rate to opposing running backs this year (Success Rate is the percentage of runs that increase the team's expected points for the drive). They're also just 17th in expected points allowed per carry. Kamara's matchup isn't bad, but McKinnon's is arguably better.

At the end of the day, you're going to want at least some exposure to each guy in this range. Ingram and Hyde have the workloads we want, and Kamara and McKinnon have the ability to turn a short screen into a boatload of points. But with McKinnon likely out of everybody's mind following his bye, we should gravitate heavily his direction when spending in this tier.