5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 10
Whenever I go grocery shopping, I try my hardest to be deliberate and make good choices. But if you've ever gone shopping on an empty stomach, you know this is easier said than done.
When your tummy is a-rumblin', that attention to detail goes right out the window. You're not taking the time to read the label on your chunky soup with processed meat and at-one-point-these-may-have-been-fresh-but-probably-not vegetables. Even if that puppy has a literal brick of salt as its core, you're not going to notice while you're sprinting home to throw it in the microwave. You've got a pressing need, and you're working to fulfill it.
If we're not in a hurry, though, we can pick up on things we'd gloss over otherwise. Finding out that one can of soup has your daily sodium for the next two and a half weeks may alter your purchases. And in the end, that's the ideal outcome: reading the label and knowing exactly what it is that we're getting.
Just like when we're starving at the grocery store, we don't have much time to think when it comes to NFL DFS. Right when Week 9 wraps up, we're hurtling ourselves into Week 10 to find the best satisfaction for our thirst for points.
Sometimes, though, we need to take a step back and read the label for what it is. That can mean removing a player's name from a scenario so that we're judging him just for his situation or potentially ignoring a hot commodity in favor of another asset in a similar spot. By doing this, we can allow ourselves to make better decisions and potentially avoid a future upset stomach/bankroll.
A big part of this process is looking at advanced analytics such as numberFire's Net Expected Points (NEP). This is the metric we use to track the expected points added on each play throughout the season for both teams and players with the team totals being adjusted for strength of opponent. NEP gives us the context to know that a three-yard completion on 3rd and 2 is much more valuable than that same completion on 3rd and 4.
We don't want sodium-laced nothingness filling the void on our DFS rosters. We want to take our time, identify the best matchups and situations for the week, and proceed from there. With this as our goal, which matchups should we look to exploit in Week 10? Let's check it out.