5 Wide Receivers With a Significant Drop in Production in 2016
Allen Hurns, Jacksonville Jaguars
Just a year prior, wide receiver Allen Hurns and teammate Allen Robinson were considered among the league's best pass-catching duos. Due to a combination of injury and negative regression on offense, Hurns was affected the most, which led to a season he'd probably like to forget.
In the 11 games he played in a more balanced offensive attack, Hurns scored just three touchdowns and drops in all the traditional counting stats.
Could we have seen this coming?
Since the Jacksonville Jaguars had the NFL's highest passing rate on plays in the red zone during 2015, Hurns was due for regression. This, paired with the year-to-year regression of the offense was a clear indicator to him having a disappointing season in the touchdown department.
| Category | 2015 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|
| Receptions | 64 | 35 |
| Catch Rate | 60.95% | 46.05% |
| Target NEP | 54.16 | -7.32 |
| Reception NEP per Target (Rank) | 0.92 (6th) | 0.47 (51st) |
| Reception Success Rate | 90.63% | 82.86% |
| Receiving Yards | 1,031 | 477 |
| Touchdowns | 10 | 3 |
The advanced metrics show quite the nosedive in Reception NEP per Target, so does that mean Hurns was nothing more than a beneficiary of Blake Bortles throwing the ball an absurd amount of times?
Target NEP can help identify what happened, as this metric shows the expected points added throughout the season on receptions, while subtracting expected points lost on interceptions and incompletions when Hurns was targeted.
Out of 53 qualified wide receivers, he ranked second-to-last in Target NEP and also last in catch rate. These go hand-in-hand and illustrate just how bad of a season he experienced. It doesn't help having Bortles throw him the ball, but he must increase his catch rate and do more with the opportunities he gets to make plays.
