NBA Betting Guide for Friday 3/10/23: How to Bet the Atlanta/Washington Rematch
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's NBA odds?
(All offensive rating, defensive rating, and net rating splits come from PBPStats.com and account for medium-, high-, and very high-leverage situations unless otherwise noted. All injury news and notes come from the official NBA injury report unless otherwise noted.)
Atlanta Hawks at Washington Wizards
Washington Wizards +1.5 (-110)
Under 238.0 (-110)
This game isn't going to be substantially impacted by recent and relevant injuries, which is always a welcomed sight for both betting and viewing purposes.
It's also a very important game for playoff seeding, which -- again -- is nice to see as the season winds down.
The Atlanta Hawks won in Washington 122-120 on Wednesday behind 38 points from Trae Young and in spite of 43 points from Kristaps Porzingis.
With that being said, the data is pushing us toward the home underdog primarily. The Wizards -- in games with Porzingis, Bradley Beal, and Kyle Kuzma -- are just 16-16 overall with a +0.7 net rating.
But the Atlanta Hawks with Young, Dejounte Murray, and Clint Capela are not substantially better (a +2.4 net rating that has led to a better record of 24-19).
That's a small gap in net rating, and once accounting for pace and home-court advantage, it actually puts the Wizards into favored territory in my model.
numberFire's algorithm also sees value in the Wizards +1.5 and lists it as a three-star play out of five.
While I prefer the spread (as does numberFire's algorithm), a lean on the under at 238.0 is also viable; my model predicts a final score in the 236.0 range.
Portland Trail Blazers at Philadelphia 76ers
Portland Trail Blazers +8.5 (-110)
I know that Anfernee Simons is questionable for this game, but he hasn't been that impactful on Portland's on/off numbers overall; this team goes as Damian Lillard goes, more or less.
Comparatively, the Philadelphia 76ers tend to be a bit overrated. While they've covered in 63.6% of home games and are 24-10 at home, their spread-adjusted point differential is only +0.1.
Accounting for health, my model thinks the spread should be Philadelphia by 6.0, giving us some room on the actual spread of 8.5 to back the underdog.
Brooklyn Nets at Minnesota Timberwolves
Over 229.5 (-110)
While the Brooklyn Nets are on a back-to-back, the team didn't play Spencer Dinwiddie or Cameron Johnson last night. Mikal Bridges, Dorian Finney-Smith, and Seth Curry played no more than 12.0 minutes apiece in a narrower-than-expected 118-113 loss to the Milwaukee Bucks.
They're presumably all ready to return to their usual roles tonight.
As for the Minnesota Timberwolves, it's more or less business as usual.
Lately, each team's scoring has been down relative to their respective over/unders since the All-Star break, but they generally have a lot higher totals than what we're seeing here (specifically Minnesota).
Putting everything together, my model thinks they combine for 233.2; numberFire's model has a one-star suggestion on the over, too.