NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Friday 3/10/23
Here, we'll focus on utilizing daily fantasy basketball projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props. For this article, we are focusing on the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place in-game props with ease.
Please note that betting lines and our daily fantasy basketball projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Donovan Mitchell Under 3.5 Made Threes (-104)
It's always a bit scary to bet on the under on Donovan Mitchell's made threes prop. The guy takes a lot of threes and can get hot, and that was on full display not that long ago as he torched the Toronto Raptors for an 8-for-12 night from deep on February 26th.
But I like this under tonight, and our model is in line.
Mitchell is taking on the Miami Heat, and it should be a slog. Over the past 15 games, these two sides rank in the bottom three in pace. The total is only 215.0 points, which is the lowest of the night by 9.5 points. In short, there won't be a ton of possessions.
On top of that, the Heat have done decently well against shooting guards when it comes to the three-ball. Across the past 15 games, Miami is allowing the 12th-fewest made threes per night to the position (3.1).
Our model really likes this bet, projecting Mitchell to go 3.2 of 8.8 from three tonight. With a -104 price on the under, this prop is a good one to zero in on.
Nikola Jokic Over 22.5 Points (-125)
Nikola Jokic might go nuts on the San Antonio Spurs.
San Antonio has been bad defensively all year, and they've gotten even worse against bigs since they dealt away Jakob Poeltl. Over the last 15 games, the Spurs are allowing the third-most points per night to centers (26.4). In that span, they've also played at the third-fastest pace and have recorded the fifth-worst defensive rating.
So, yeah, they're probably not going to offer much resistance versus Jokic.
Jokic has been in a scoring rut of late, being held to 18 or fewer points in four straight. But he's averaging 24.3 points for the season, and our model forecasts Jokic to net 24.8 tonight.
My biggest worry here is blowout risk as the Denver Nuggets are 13.0-point road favorites. A blowout could lead to reduced minutes for Jokic, but even with abbreviated minutes, he could still hit this over.
