3 NBA FanDuel Value Plays to Target on Monday 3/6/23
One of the keys to finding success in daily fantasy basketball is uncovering potential value plays.
If you're looking to roster a stud player or two, you need to consider squeezing one of these lower-salaried options into your lineup.
Let's take a look at some players who can help fill in the gaps in your lineup on FanDuel tonight, using numberFire's daily fantasy basketball projections as a guide.
Marvin Bagley, PF/C, Pistons ($6,200)
Marvin Bagley is a little higher in salary than most true value plays, but with value thin on this slate (as of early Monday), I thought he was worth writing up.
Bagley has been a monster of late, taking advantage of Isaiah Stewart's absence. He's produced at least 34.9 FanDuel points in three of his past four outings, including a 48.6-point explosion last time out. He got 34 minutes in that one and should be in for a lot of run tonight, particularly if James Wiseman -- who is questionable -- sits out.
The matchup is a good one as the Portland Trail Blazers have given up the fourth-most FanDuel points per night to centers and the ninth-most to power forwards this season.
Our model projects Bagley for 30.2 minutes and 30.8 FanDuel points, and that's with us currently projecting Wiseman to play. Bagley is a solid midrange pick regardless of Wiseman's status, but if Wiseman sits, Bagley will likely be one of the night's premier point-per-dollar options.
De'Anthony Melton, PG/SG, Sixers ($4,600)
De'Anthony Melton already projects pretty well, according to our algorithm, as we forecast him to score 25.4 FanDuel points, which comes out to 5.5 per $1,000 in salary. His outlook might wind up being even better, too.
Tobias Harris and P.J. Tucker didn't participate in shootaround this morning and appear to be on the wrong side of questionable for the Philadelphia 76ers. As of early Monday afternoon, our model accounts for both playing, and Melton is still surpassing five-times value.
With those two off the court, Melton has generated 1.16 FanDuel points per minute this season, per CourtIQ, while his usage rate rises 2.4 percentage points. He also sees boosts of 2.3 rebounds and 2.0 assists per 36 minutes in the split.
A matchup with the Indiana Pacers certainly doesn't hurt things. Indiana (10th in pace) is a big pace-up spot for Philly (26th), and the Pacers are 23rd in defensive rating. The game's total is 234.5 points with a 6.5-point spread. Over the past 30 games, Indiana is allowing the third-most FanDuel points per night to shooting guards.
As was the case with Bagley, Melton is a good point-per-dollar play right now and could be a truly elite value piece if injury situations break his way.
Trey Murphy, SF, Pelicans ($5,200)
The New Orleans Pelicans are short-handed, missing all of Zion Williamson, Jose Alvarado, Larry Nance Jr. and Josh Richardson. Plus, Jonas Valanciunas is questionable and has missed two straight games.
Enter Trey Murphy.
The Pelicans' wing has played 31 and 37 minutes in the past two games, scoring 23.4 and 28.5 FanDuel points. Those DFS outputs won't blow you away, but the minutes are very nice for someone who is $5,200.
Murphy could improve on those outputs in a friendly matchup with the Sacramento Kings. Over the past 10 games, the Kings are seventh in pace and next to last in defensive rating. They've been a dream matchup. They've also surrendered the 12th-most FanDuel points per game to small forwards across the past seven games.
Our model has Murphy pegged to score 26.0 FanDuel points -- right at 5.0 per $1,000 -- and that's with Valanciunas projected to play, so there's room for Murphy's projection to grow if JV is ruled out.
