NBA Betting Guide for Thursday 3/2/23: Will the Clippers End the Warriors' Winning Streak?
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's NBA odds?
(All offensive rating, defensive rating, and net rating splits come from PBPStats.com and account for medium-, high-, and very high-leverage situations unless otherwise noted. All injury news and notes come from the official NBA injury report unless otherwise noted.)
Toronto Raptors at Washington Wizards
Washington Wizards +2.0 (-110)
Though both teams in this game have a pretty long injury list, said lists are absent of the key pieces in this game, so we have good samples to look at.
The caveat there, of course, is accounting for the Toronto Raptors with Jakob Poeltl, but that sample is growing quickly.
Accounting for the health on each side, my model is seeing a net rating of +2.0 for Toronto and +0.6 for the Wizards. Once we account for pace and home-court advantage, then it's a situation where we should view this as a close game getting closer.
Washington is 14-13 at home with a +0.3 adjusted net rating. The Raptors are only 11-19 away from home with a 39.3% cover rate, a bottom-six number in the NBA.
Philadelphia 76ers at Dallas Mavericks
Dallas Mavericks Team Total Over 116.5 (-104)
The Philadelphia 76ers visit the Mavericks after playing last night. On Wednesday, the Sixers beat the Miami Heat 119-96 in Miami, so we have a lack of rest and some travel, though the blowout doesn't hurt in that regard.
Joel Embiid did not play in that game and is presumed to be questionable for tonight's matchup (once we get an initial injury report).
Even accounting for Embiid healthy, we should probably see some points from the Mavericks.
In five games with Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving, the team is 1-4 but has averaged 124.2 points per game (and has allowed 121.6 per game for a total of 245.8). Using their new offensive and defensive ratings and, again, assuming Embiid's health, my model has the Mavericks scoring north of 120 points in this matchup in a high-scoring affair.
Los Angeles Clippers at Golden State Warriors
Los Angeles Clippers Moneyline (-164)
The Golden State Warriors remain without both Stephen Curry and Andrew Wiggins for a matchup with the Clippers.
Though they're 25-7 at home on the year, they own an adjusted point differential of -2.3 in 10 games with Klay Thompson, Draymond Green, and Jordan Poole but with Curry and Wiggins out.
The Clippers, in games with both Kawhi Leonard and Paul George, own a +3.1 adjusted point differential. They beat the Warriors 134-124 at home on Valentine's Day, as well.
My model is anticipating a 63.1% chance of a Clippers win, giving us a little breathing room on the -164 odds.
