3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Tuesday 2/28/23
Here, we'll focus on utilizing daily fantasy basketball projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props. For this article, we are focusing on the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place in-game props with ease.
Please note that betting lines and our daily fantasy basketball projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Cam Thomas Under 1.5 Made Threes (-146)
Cam Thomas has a difficult matchup for threes against the Milwaukee Bucks, and that has me on the under on his made threes prop.
Over the last 15 games, Milwaukee has surrendered a three-point attempt rate of just 35.1%, the third-lowest in that span. The shooting-guard position is getting off only 8.5 three-point shots per night against the Bucks this year, tied for the eighth-fewest.
Thomas is no longer starting for the new-look Brooklyn Nets, and across the last five games, he's averaging only 23.7 minutes per game and making just 1.4 threes on 3.2 attempts.
Thomas is still capable of filling it up when he's hot -- hitting three triples in two of those last five games -- but when you combine his current role with the bad matchup, it's easy to feel good about this under.
Our model has Thomas hitting 1.4 threes on 4.4 attempts.
Desmond Bane Over 2.5 Made Threes (-128)
The Los Angeles Lakers' three-point D is on the opposite end of the spectrum from the Bucks' defense. In the past 15 games, LA has given up a 42.2% three-point attempt rate, the third-highest.
Enter Desmond Bane.
Bane is in a shooting slump, making only 29.7% of his three-balls over the last five games. But he's still gone over 2.5 made threes twice in that time, and he's bound to start shooting it better, as he's a 43.0% shooter from deep for his career, including 41.3% this campaign.
The recent swoon hasn't impacted his volume much, either, as he's taken at least seven threes in four consecutive games.
This matchup should help, too. The Lakers have allowed a league-high 9.4 three-point attempts per game to small forwards this year.
We project Bane for 3.4 trifectas on 7.8 attempts. As long as the Lakers -- who are 9.0-point 'dogs -- can keep things fairly close and ensure Bane sees his usual fourth-quarter minutes, the over has a good chance to cash.
Luka Doncic Under 31.5 Points (-106)
It's always scary to bet the under for anything with Luka Doncic, but I'm going to risk it here.
The matchup is a big reason why.
Luka is facing the Indiana Pacers. Indiana has been a lockdown defense against point guards this year, holding the position to a league-low 22.1 points per game.
On top of that, Doncic is scoring only 27.8 points per 36 minutes when sharing the court with Kyrie Irving, according to CourtIQ.
While Luka can erupt in any matchup and in any situation, the under checks a few boxes, and our model is in line, forecasting Doncic to score 30.7 points tonight.