NBA Betting Guide for Tuesday 2/28/23: Targeting 3 Totals on Tuesday
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's NBA odds?
(All offensive rating, defensive rating, and net rating splits come from PBPStats.com and account for medium-, high-, and very high-leverage situations unless otherwise noted. All injury news and notes come from the official NBA injury report unless otherwise noted.)
Los Angeles Lakers at Memphis Grizzlies
Under 230.5 (-110)
This game is marred by substantial injury news, primarily on the Los Angeles Lakers' side of things. LeBron James is out, and D'Angelo Russell is doubtful. Despite a 2-0 post-break start, the Lakers are likely to take a step back. They're 9.0-point road underdogs against the Memphis Grizzlies.
For Memphis, they're still without Steven Adams but are otherwise healthy.
When looking at each team's relevant splits for this matchup based on health, the main concern is the Lakers' offense. Their offensive rating for this game based on health is only 105.3.
The Grizzlies' defensive rating (110.4 for this game) is noticeably better than the league average (and so is LA's, to be clear).
With blowout risk and an offense set to struggle, it's the under that stands out in this matchup.
San Antonio Spurs at Utah Jazz
Under 236.0 (-112)
This matchup also has a large spread (Utah Jazz by 9.5) and a total that's too high due primarily to one side.
The San Antonio Spurs are spiraling, and we just saw this matchup a few days ago, a 118-102 win by the Jazz. Despite that, the total is set a lot higher (16 more points here).
Now, both teams have large-sample trends that are over-friendly, but the more recent and injury-adjusted numbers point to an under.
The Spurs' relevant net rating for this game is only 108.7. The Jazz's number sits at 111.8, also below the NBA average.
My model is projecting a total of only 227.0.
Minnesota Timberwolves at Los Angeles Clippers
Over 233.5 (-110)
We're mixing it up with an over here. The Minnesota Timberwolves are listing Rudy Gobert as probable here, and the Los Angeles Clippers are listing Ivica Zubac as questionable but are otherwise good to go.
With that in mind, we're getting an elite Clippers' offense (119.3 offensive rating) with a worse-than-average defensive rating (116.5). The Timberwolves are around the league average in both stats, and the Clippers' pace is ticking up a bit lately.
Over their past 20 games, the Clippers have gone over and allowed opponents to go over their implied team total 65.0% of the time.
My model thinks the total should be 237.0 for this one.