College Basketball Betting Guide: Tuesday 2/28/23
College basketball is one of the more entertaining sports to bet on due to the sheer volume of games that take place each day. The season is heating up as conference play winds down, and this is a great time to hone your betting prowess before March Madness.
Using our projections as a guide, which bets should you make via the college basketball odds at FanDuel Sportsbook?
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Ohio at Kent State
Kent State -7.5 (-115)
As sizable favorites, the Kent State Golden Flashes are expected to take care of business against the Ohio Bobcats, and the numbers back that notion.
Most notably, we find a massive divide between the two teams on the defensive side of the ball. While the Golden Flashes rank 35th in adjusted defensive efficiency, per BartTorvik, the Bobcats are bottom of the barrel at 270th. Not only does Kent State rank 29th in effective field goal percentage defense, but they're 14th in defensive turnover rate.
Although Kent State is middle of the pack in adjusted offense (146th), they should be able to put up points in this matchup. Ohio's poor adjusted defense is well-deserved, ranking outside the top 200 across the board defensively in effective field goal percentage, turnover rate, rebounding rate, and free throw rate.
Overall, the Golden Flashes sit comfortably in the nation's top 100 teams, according to both BartTorvik (81st) and KenPom (76th), while you have to roughly double those marks to find Ohio's spot (160th and 144th).
Our model gives Kent State a solid 58.5% chance of covering the 7.5-point spread. BartTorvik's projection is also favorable, pegging the Golden Flashes as 10.3-point winners.
Fresno State at New Mexico
New Mexico -8.5 (-110)
We're looking to back another favorite tonight, and this time it's the New Mexico Lobos, who host the Fresno State Bulldogs.
In this case, while the two teams are more closely matched on defense, New Mexico's offense runs laps around Fresno State's. The Lobos rank 21st in adjusted offense, and that includes being 54th in effective field goal percentage, 43rd in turnover rate, and 23rd in free throw rate.
On the other hand, the Bulldogs are a mere 250th in adjusted offense. They're roughly 300th or worse in effective field goal percentage, offensive rebounding rate, free throw rate, and three-point shooting percentage. Yikes!
And you might say that New Mexico will literally run laps around Fresno State when it comes to tempo. Given their offensive prowess, the Lobos like to play quickly and rank 25th in adjusted tempo, whereas the Bulldogs prefer to bring things to a crawl as one of the nation's slowest teams (336th).
Put it all together, and New Mexico is a top-50 team, per BartTorvik and KenPom, and outside of a rare off night on offense, they should be able to win comfortably over a Fresno team well outside the top 100. BartTorvik has the Lobos winning by double digits, and that coincides with numberFire's model giving them a 61.3% of covering.
