NBA Betting Guide for Monday 2/13/23: Can the Bulls Get Back on Track at Home?
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's NBA odds?
(All offensive rating, defensive rating, and net rating splits come from PBPStats.com and account for medium-, high-, and very high-leverage situations unless otherwise noted. All injury news and notes come from the official NBA injury report unless otherwise noted.)
Atlanta Hawks at Charlotte Hornets
Under 240.0 (-110)
Sure, we have 11 games on the board tonight, but almost all of them have some sort of key questionable injury tag(s), which makes early-day value harder to find and trust. So, I'll be sticking to games where that risk is mitigated because we, thankfully, have some value in games that aren't dependent on late-night injury confirmations.
We can start with the Atlanta Hawks and Charlotte Hornets game and look at the over/under.
The total is at 240.0, and that's a bit high. Accounting for health for each side, my model is projecting a total of 234.1.
The Hornets, in particular, seem to have a better offensive perception than what they've produced for us this season. Just 32.0% of their home games have gone over, and Charlotte has surpassed its implied team total in just 32.0% of those games, as well.
Atlanta is more over-friendly but has gone over their implied team total in 48.4% of their road games.
Whether it's looking at the active rosters or the trends, the numbers say 240.0 is too high. Their three prior matchups have averaged 235.3 points, as well.
Brooklyn Nets at New York Knicks
Over 220.5 (-110)
A lot of teams are going to be in strange transition periods in terms of finding trustworthy samples after their core was decimated at the trade deadline. The Brooklyn Nets are a very obvious example.
They've played two games with Dorian Finney-Smith and Spencer Dinwiddie and a single game with them plus Mikal Bridges and Cameron Johnson. That's a small sample no matter how you slice it.
If we look at that single game, they lost 101-98 to the Philadelphia 76ers -- a respectable output. They had just a 47.3% effective field goal percentage but an expected output of 53.0% based on their shot selection. Even with that poor shooting, they had a respectable offensive rating of 111.4 against the 76ers.
The New York Knicks are average at home (15-15 overall) yet have a +2.0 opponent-adjusted net rating across those 30 matchups.
What does it all mean? Well, I can't quite get there with a spread or moneyline, but there does seem to be value on the over.
So far this season, the Knicks have allowed 63.3% of opponents to go over their implied team total at Madison Square Garden, and we can likely expect better offensive output from the Nets here if regression hits.
Orlando Magic at Chicago Bulls
Chicago Bulls Moneyline (-190)
Chicago Bulls -5.0 (-110)
The Bulls are still clinging to playoff relevancy (35.4%, via numberFire's model), and the Orlando Magic are sitting at just 1.0%. Wins and losses are going to mean even more down the stretch, and this should be a get-right spot for the Bulls.
Chicago is coming off of a three-game road losing streak (losing to the Memphis Grizzlies, Nets, and Cleveland Cavaliers).
Orlando was 1-2 on a recent homestand and now hits the road, where they are 9-19 with a worse-than-average -4.5 adjusted net rating.
Accounting for health, my model has Chicago's win odds at 72.0%. numberFire's algorithm has it at 77.4%, thus making their moneyline a four-star play.
You can also consider adding the Philadelphia 76ers (-1100) and Cleveland Cavaliers (-1150) moneylines to the Bulls for a -124 three-team moneyline parlay. Using numberFire's win probabilities, we should expect those odds to be -184.