NBA

3 NBA FanDuel Studs to Target on Friday 2/10/23

Austan Kas  —  @AustanKas Feb 10th, 2023

Basketball is the most consistent sport for daily fantasy purposes.

A top slugger in baseball will have his fair share of 0-for-4 days, and an elite fantasy football player is at risk of having games where his team's offense is shut down.

A high-salaried NBA stud is generally going to get his, though. With so many possessions in a game providing opportunities to produce, top fantasy basketball options will post high scores just about every night.

While this consistency puts us in an excellent position to identify top plays, it also means you can't afford to miss when you're paying up for someone. Even with strong value plays in your lineup, paying up and getting a dud will likely leave your lineup drawing pretty close to dead.

Which top players should be the focal points of your lineups today?

Damian Lillard, PG, Portland ($10,400)

Damian Lillard is in a smash spot tonight.

He's up against the Oklahoma City Thunder, and it's a big pace-up matchup. Portland is just 23rd in pace while OKC ranks 3rd. OKC also just flat-out struggles to defend point guards. Over the past eight games, the Thunder are permitting the eighth-most FanDuel points per night to the position (50.7).

The game environment sets up perfectly. The total is a slate-leading 241.5 points, and the spread is 3.0. The Portland Trail Blazers' 122.25-point implied total is the night's highest.

In addition to that, Jusuf Nurkic and Josh Hart won't be suiting up.

Lillard needs 52.0 FanDuel points to hit five-times value (5.0 points per $1,000), and he's surpassed 53.4 FanDuel points in four of his last six games, with a spike outing of 67.6 in that time.

We project Dame for 50.7 FanDuel points on Friday, and he's my favorite play among those with a five-digit salary.

Anthony Edwards, SG/SF, Minnesota ($9,100)

D'Angelo Russell is gone, and Rudy Gobert is questionable. Even if Gobert plays, Anthony Edwards can go nuts today in a date with the Memphis Grizzlies.

With Russell off the floor this year, Edwards owns a 34.4% usage rate and produces 50.2 FanDuel points per 36 minutes, according to CourtIQ. Those are elite numbers and are bumps of 4.8 percentage points and 8.2 FanDuel points, respectively.

The Grizzlies are a difficult matchup, but the pace should help as both Minnesota and Memphis sit in the top five in pace. The game boasts a 235.0-point total, the third-best on the slate.

We project Ant to post 44.4 FanDuel points, and there's upside for more regardless of Gobert's status. He had 53.4 FanDuel points sans D-Lo last time out.

Paul George, SG/SF, LA Clippers ($8,200)

There's no Kawhi Leonard tonight, so fire up Paul George.

With Kawhi off the court this season, PG13 has generated 44.4 FanDuel points per 36 minutes on a 32.7% usage rate -- increases of 1.7 FanDuel points and 2.3 percentage points, respectively.

While the Milwaukee Bucks are a tough foe, the game has a 227.0-point total and 2.5-point spread, so it should be a good environment for fantasy. It doesn't hurt that Milwaukee is on a back-to-back, although they didn't have to travel.

According to our model, George projects for 45.4 FanDuel points in 36.1 minutes -- right at his season-long rate in this split. That's 5.54 per $1,000.

PG is an excellent play at a modest salary. The only negative is that he'll be super chalky.