FanDuel Single-Game Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Super Bowl LVII

Super Bowl LVII features the top seeds from both conferences, so we should have a good one on our hands to wrap up this NFL campaign. Per FanDuel Sportsbook, the Philadelphia Eagles are favored by just 1.5 points over the Kansas City Chiefs, and the over/under is set at an appealing 50.5 points.

For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to main slates. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5 times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.

Our Brandon Gdula has done a deep dive on single-game strategy, and we have projections for the single-game slate if you select the game from the slate tab. It's worth checking out both of those things before you make your lineups.

MVP Candidates

You'll find no surprises atop numberFire's projections for the big game. Star quarterbacks Jalen Hurts ($17,000) and Patrick Mahomes ($17,500) are the only players projected for over 20 FanDuel points, and no one else comes particularly close. Although neither one has put up monster fantasy numbers in the playoffs, their upside is obvious, and they'll be the most popular MVPs by a wide margin.

Of the two, it's Hurts who leads the way, no doubt boosted by his well-known rushing prowess. Including the postseason, Hurts has averaged 50.3 yards and 0.9 touchdowns on the ground, and he's projected as the most likely candidate across both teams to score a rushing touchdown, per our model. While he hasn't done much as a passer in his playoff outings, it's hard to read too much into it given that both games were blowouts.

While Mahomes' ankle remains a concern, he's coming off a 300-yard passing performance in the AFC Championship Game, and his mobility might not be as hindered after the extra time off between games. That being said, this is a tough matchup against a Philadelphia defense that's first in adjusted pass defense, per our metrics, and led the league in sacks. But it's still Patrick Mahomes -- you know, the guy who led the league in both passing yards and touchdowns.

There's no question that if we played this game out a hundred times, one of these two would end up as the top fantasy scorer more often than not. So, despite their chalky status, chances are you'll want to stick with one of them at MVP in most lineups.

But if we want to increase our chances of a unique lineup in tournaments, that means taking a shot on some other guys, too.

Travis Kelce ($14,000) checks in with the third-best projection at around 16 points, falling somewhere in between the quarterbacks and the next-best choices. Easily Mahomes' top pass-catcher, Kelce is the only player projected for double-digit targets. He will likely need multiple touchdowns to emerge as the top scorer, but he's done that three times this season, including just a couple of games ago in the Divisional Round (28.8 FanDuel points). He led the team in both red zone target share (31.1%) and end zone target share (28.9%) this season.

Eagles wideouts A.J. Brown ($12,500) and DeVonta Smith ($11,500) are also projected for double-digit FanDuel points, but their respective ceilings are often obstructed by to the run-heavy nature of this offense. But if this game shoots out as the high total suggests, either one could pop for a big score. It certainly doesn't hurt that Kansas City has allowed the seventh-most FanDuel points per game to wide receivers.

At the end of the day, there isn't a significant difference in their projections, and both are pegged for 8-9 targets. That being said, Brown owned the edge over Smith in target share (29.0% vs. 27.0%) and air yards share (41.6% vs. 31.9%) this year, and he had four games of 20-plus FanDuel points, compared to just two for Smith.

Miles Sanders ($12,000) is coming off a two-touchdown performance, but he tallied only 11 carries (and a target) and hasn't played over half the snaps in any of the last four games. While much of that likely has to do with recent lopsided game scripts (and a half-hearted Week 18), there's no getting around that this is an annoying committee alongside Kenneth Gainwell ($8,500) and Boston Scott ($7,500), and his quarterback is effectively the primary goal line back, too.

Overall, when all three backs have been active, Sanders has played 52.9% of the snaps while averaging 14.4 rushes and 1.2 targets per game. While that isn't exciting volume, Sanders will flirt with 20-plus opportunities here and there, and he's actually popped for a few slate-altering performances, scoring 28 or more FanDuel points three times.

In a competitive game, it's possible we see Sanders' usage and playing time get a sizable bump compared to what we've seen lately, and the matchup should be favorable against the Chiefs' 24th-ranked adjusted rush defense. Despite the red flags, I wouldn't rule him out as a contrarian MVP.

Flex Breakdown

Isiah Pacheco ($10,500) is the only other player projected for 10-plus points, but as one part of a split backfield in a pass-heavy offense, I'm more inclined to leave him as a FLEX.

Dating back to when Pacheco's role increased in Week 10, he's averaged 13.5 carries and 1.6 targets over the last 11 games with a 45.4% snap rate. He's also been the primary rusher near the goal line, earning a team-high 50.9% red zone rush share over that span. Further helping his cause is an Eagles defense that's 25th against the run in our ranking.

While his limited receiving role has hampered his upside, he saw a season-high six targets in the AFC Championship Game and also logged a promising 56.1% snap rate. It remains to be seen whether that trend continues on Sunday, but double-digit rushes are pretty much a guarantee, and he's scored 10-plus FanDuel points in 8 of his last 10 games.

Of course, Jerick McKinnon ($9,500) is the one taking most of the non-Pacheco snaps in this backfield, and he's averaged 5.0 rushes, 4.5 targets, and a 47.2% snap rate dating back to Week 10. He's coming off back-to-back underwhelming playoff performances, but his pass-catching role has led to fruitful fantasy performances, and this isn't a bad salary to consider him.

And speaking of pass catching, predicting Kansas City's wide receiver targets has been a headache all season, and recent injuries haven't helped the cause. But it sounds like Mecole Hardman (injured reserve) will be the only one to miss the game, leaving JuJu Smith-Schuster ($9,000), Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($8,000), and Kadarius Toney ($7,000) as the top options.

Smith-Schuster got a full practice in on Wednesday, so -- at least on paper -- he should be the top non-Kelce option. But the reality is that any of these guys could come away with a viable fantasy score, so it may simply be a matter of mixing and matching them across lineups. For what it's worth, our model has Marquez and Juju at around five targets apiece, and Toney is projected for three or so.

Any setbacks would lead to more snaps and looks for Skyy Moore ($6,000) and Justin Watson ($5,500), putting them on the dart-throw radar -- but that's about it. Tight end Noah Gray ($5,500) could also see a target or two.

Moving back to the Eagles, Dallas Goedert ($10,000) is Hurts' third option behind A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, and he's projected for 6-7 targets, the fourth-most on the slate. He posted a 19.6% target share this season and typically plays almost every snap. He's a solid consolation prize in lineups where you can't quite get to Brown or Smith.

Running backs Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott are trickier to project. Gainwell has logged 12 and 14 carries in the playoffs, but it's mostly come in the second half of lopsided wins, and he had previously exceeded 5 carries once all season. While Scott has scored a touchdown in three straight, he averaged just 7.0 rushes in those weeks and had a meh 18.0% snap rate this year.

As noted earlier, I wouldn't be shocked if Sanders takes on a greater role with everything on the line, potentially leaving Gainwell with scraps and Scott as a virtual zero. But at salaries below $9,000, they can still be viewed as touchdown-or-bust plays, and it's also entirely possible the Eagles are content rotating all three in some capacity, particularly if they get out to a second-half lead. Our model sees Gainwell getting about 6 rushes and 2-3 targets, while Scott is pegged for just a couple of touches.

Wide receivers Quez Watkins ($6,000) and Zach Pascal ($5,500) round out Philadelphia's pass-catchers, but neither one is likely to make an impact, and both have played below half the snaps this postseason. Watkins has occasionally made some noise this year, though, and he saw a bump in targets when Goedert was injured. He would be the next man up if one of the top options were to go down mid-game.

Finally, given that we have the league's two best adjusted offenses going at it this weekend, I doubt either defense comes up with a worthwhile fantasy score, and a high-scoring game would likely keep both kickers from cracking the optimal lineup, as well. Still, both Harrison Butker ($8,500) and Jake Elliott ($8,000) haven't missed a kick in the playoffs and could come through if you think the under hits.