NBA Betting Guide for Friday 2/10/23: Adjusting for Trade Deadline Transactions
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's NBA odds?
(All offensive rating, defensive rating, and net rating splits come from PBPStats.com and account for medium-, high-, and very high-leverage situations unless otherwise noted. All injury news and notes come from the official NBA injury report unless otherwise noted.)
Boston Celtics, Miami Heat Moneyline Parlay
Boston Celtics Moneyline (-450)
Miami Heat Moneyline (-620)
Parlay Odds: -239
With so many trades and injuries, it's hard to find a lot of games and situations with trustworthy samples. Questionable tags also make it hard to find value in a lot of spots.
Two situations where it shouldn't quite matter (or matter enough) are for the Celtics (hosting the Charlotte Hornets as 10.0-point favorites) and the Heat (hosting the Houston Rockets as 12.0-point favorites).
Using numberFire's win probabilities as the baseline, these two teams have expected parlay odds of -360, but the actual parlay odds are -239 via the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.
I have to note that Jayson Tatum is listed as questionable. However, they're still primed to win this game even without him.
Also, since 2016, double-digit home favorites have an 84.9% win rate.
Oklahoma City Thunder at Portland Trail Blazers
Under 241.5 (-110)
Aside from Jusuf Nurkic, key players for each side in this tilt between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Portland Trail Blazers are active, and eveen with that, the total is probably too high. Part of that has to do with trades and a new-look roster.
The Blazers, in games with Damian Lillard and Anfernee Simons but with Nurkic, Josh Hart, and Gary Payton II off the floor, have an offensive rating of only 112.6.
Oklahoma City's offensive rating in games with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Josh Giddey active is just 114.1. These are both effectively average rates.
Statistically speaking, the defensive ratings aren't bad enough to make up for that and lead to a lot of points. numberFire's model likes the under as a three-star play.
Milwaukee Bucks at Los Angeles Clippers
Under 227.0 (-110)
Here's another under. This time around, numberFire's model likes this as a four-star suggestion and views this Milwaukee Bucks/Los Angeles Clippers game as 67.8% likely to stay under 227.0 points.
This is another spot where the relevant offensive ratings are around the NBA average -- but are a bit better than what we have in the last game.
The Bucks are sitting at 113.8. The Clippers (in games without Kawhi Leonard but with Paul George and a few other adjustments) are at 116.5). Along with that, LA holds a 108.5 defensive rating; Milwaukee's is 110.1.
The defenses are too good to back the over.