NBA Betting Guide for Tuesday 1/17/23: Targeting 3 Totals on Tuesday

Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.

But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's NBA odds?

(All offensive rating, defensive rating, and net rating splits come from and account for medium-, high-, and very high-leverage situations unless otherwise noted. All injury news and notes come from the official NBA injury report unless otherwise noted.)

Brooklyn Nets at San Antonio Spurs

Under 232.5 (-110)

The San Antonio Spurs do have home-court advantage tonight but are winless in their last five games and are 2-8 in their past 10.

Overall, San Antonio is 8-16 at home, which is impressive, given that they're 13-31 overall on the season.

The Brooklyn Nets are a decent road team (14-8) but are without Kevin Durant. Though he hasn't missed many games this season, the Nets have been pretty weak without him. Their net rating is -3.1, and their offense struggles when he's sidelined.

Their relevant offensive rating is just 110.2 in this spot, and they still put up a good fight defensively without KD (113.3 defensive rating on key possessions with him sidelined).

The Spurs' numbers are more over-friendly (118.7 and 123.0, respectively) -- but are operating at outlier rates in a lot of ways.

The data points to the under in this matchup.

Portland Trail Blazers at Denver Nuggets

Over 238.0 (-110)

In this game, it's the over that makes more sense even though it's been climbing already.

These teams have their stars, and that is very relevant.

The Portland Trail Blazers' offensive rating with Damian Lillard is 120.0, and it falls a full 14.0 points per 100 possessions without him. That's the difference between ranking 1st and 30th for the full season. Blazers games with Lillard have a 50.0% over rate; without him, it's 41.7%.

As for the Denver Nuggets' offensive output with and without Nikola Jokic, it's even greater. The Nuggets score 123.5 points per 100 possessions with Jokic and 103.5 without him. Again, that's as big of a drop as we can get, rankings-wise.

The offense should be flowing in this matchup.

Philadelphia 76ers at Los Angeles Clippers

Under 223.0 (-110)

Star forward Paul George participated in practice on Monday and thus could be returning to the lineup, but the Los Angeles Clippers are on the front end of a back-to-back set tonight (they travel to play the Utah Jazz tomorrow). Kawhi Leonard will play. We should monitor this one.

Overall this season, the Clippers have been an under-friendly team (62.2%), and that's magnified at home. In home games for the Clippers, the over has hit at a 13.0% rate and has fallen short of the total by an average of 10.1 points.

The Philadelphia 76ers have much better over tendencies but also play at a slower-than-average pace.

numberFire's model likes the under as a four-star play despite a total of 233 points in their first meeting of the season.