NBA Betting Guide for Friday 1/13/23: Injuries Permeate Matchups All Across the Board
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's NBA odds?
(All offensive rating, defensive rating, and net rating splits come from PBPStats.com and account for medium-, high-, and very high-leverage situations unless otherwise noted. All injury news and notes come from the official NBA injury report unless otherwise noted.)
New Orleans Pelicans at Detroit Pistons
New Orleans Pelicans -6.5 (-110)
It's a bit odd to think about a Pelicans team down Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram as 6.0-point road favorites, but they're playing the Detroit Pistons, who are without Jalen Duren, Isaiah Stewart, and Cade Cunningham.
Accounting for these injuries, the Pelicans are still a good team so long as they're centered on C.J. McCollum. Their net rating in games with McCollum but not Williamson and Ingram is +10.3. That should scale back eventually (unless the Pelicans without Zion and Ingram are title contenders), but the point is that they are still a good overall team in this split.
The Pistons, without their injured trio on the floor, hold a net rating of -7.6 primarily because of a horrible defensive output (122.5 points per 100 possessions allowed). That sample is more likely to stick around long-term.
New Orleans, via numberFire's model, is 60.6% likely to cover.
Oklahoma City Thunder at Chicago Bulls
Under 233.5 (-110)
The Oklahoma City Thunder are continuing their road trip with a third straight game outside of Oklahoma City, and just last night, they played in Philadelphia (and won 133-114). It's not an ideal travel situation for them by any means.
The Chicago Bulls are listing DeMar DeRozan as doubtful, and that could be an important note here. In games with Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic but with DeRozan off the floor, the Bulls have an offensive rating of just 110.9 with a moderate pace, as well. In DeRozan's first missed game (the team's most recent outing), they scored just 97 points against the Washington Wizards.
My model -- accounting for travel, rest, and injuries -- has the expected total at only 227.9.
numberFire's model also likes the under, rating it a one-unit play.
Orlando Magic at Utah Jazz
Utah Jazz Moneyline (-235)
Utah Jazz -6.0 (-110)
Our model at numberFire usually loves the Jazz, and tonight is no exception. They're projected to win by double digits, and their moneyline is a five-star play (out of five) with the spread sitting as a three-star play, as well.
They'll be without Kelly Olynyk, but it shouldn't matter too much. Their relevant net rating for this game is +2.9 with the Orlando Magic's number down at -2.7 once accounting for their injuries.
Utah holds a 13-7 home record and a +5.1 adjusted net rating with a 55.6% cover rate in those 20 games. They've had time to rest up after beating the Cleveland Cavaliers 116-114 on Tuesday.
Orlando is playing their fourth consecutive road game and has shown life with two wins in their previous three road matchups. Overall, their road record is only 6-14, and in road games with Markelle Fultz and Paolo Banchero but no Jalen Suggs, they're 3-4 despite a -4.0 point differential. The record is probably a bit misleading as a result.
