3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Friday 12/16/22

Here, we'll focus on utilizing daily fantasy basketball projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props. For this article, we are focusing on the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.

The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place in-game props with ease.

Please note that betting lines and our daily fantasy basketball projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.

Trae Young Over 2.5 Made Threes (+112)

Trae Young is averaging just 2.0 made threes per game on the season, and he is shooting just 28.5% from beyond the arc.

That looks to be a big reason why his over odds at 2.5 made threes are +112. Those odds put him at 47.2% likely to go over.

numberFire's model, though, is projecting Young for 2.8 made threes tonight.

Despite the sub-30% shooting percentage, Young has an expected three-point make percentage of 36.2%, according to DARKO.

Young is facing the Charlotte Hornets, a team that is allowing a league-average number of three-point attempts per game overall on the season, so there should still be shot volume.

At a projection of 2.8 makes, we can consider Young around 53.0% likely to go over, meaning the odds should be more like -112 than +112.

Julius Randle Under 25.5 Points (-111)

The New York Knicks square up with the Chicago Bulls on the road tonight in a game with a moderate total of 226.0 points.

The Bulls rank around the league average in points per game allowed and are 10th in defensive rating. That seems to matter for Julius Randle.

In games against top-10 defenses, Randle has averaged only 19.4 points per game in 35.3 minutes per contest.

In games against non-top-10 defenses, he's at 24.6 points per game, so the full-season scoring average (22.6 points) is inflated due to success in better matchups.

Randle is projected for 24.3 points tonight, and even at that rate, we should expect under odds of -129.

Luka Doncic Over 8.5 Assists (-130)

Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks host the Portland Trail Blazers tonight in a fun game between star point guards.

The juice is -130 on the over for Doncic's assists prop, but that's okay. numberFire is projecting Luka for 9.3 helpers, which is in line with his underlying assist data, via DARKO.

Doncic has averaged a healthy 8.9 assists per game against teams outside the top 10 in defensive rating while maintaining an assist-per-minute rate of 0.242 in that span.

Using numberFire's base projection (9.3 helpers), we can consider Doncic around -142 to go over.