NBA Betting Guide for Wednesday 12/14/22: How to Handle the Warriors on the Road

Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.

But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's NBA odds? (All offensive rating, defensive rating, and net rating splits come from PBPStats.com and account for medium-, high-, and very high-leverage situations unless otherwise noted.)

Golden State Warriors at Indiana Pacers

Under 238.0 (-110)
Indiana Pacers +1.5 (-110)

We'll need injury adjustments in this one -- and rest tweaks, too.

The Golden State Warriors played last night against the Milwaukee Bucks, a 128-111 loss. In that game, Klay Thompson played 27.1 minutes, so he's likely to sit this one out. Andrew Wiggins remains out for this road-road back-to-back.

Without those two on the floor but with Stephen Curry and Draymond Green active, the Warriors hold a net rating of +2.3.

Now, on the road, the Warriors are just 2-12 with an opponent-adjusted point differential of -9.0. That's partly explained by three-point shooting.

Opponents at home versus the Warriors have shot 39.9% from three. Teams visiting Golden State have shot just 29.7% from deep. Those are both pretty outlier-ish, but either way, without Wiggins and Thompson, the Warriors are good -- not elite.

The Pacers are largely healthy, and their relevant net rating for this matchup is -2.2. Accounting for rest and home-court advantage, my model puts them -- narrowly -- favored in this matchup, so the +1.5 is welcomed. So is the moneyline (+102).

But my preferred route is the under (238.0).

In these relevant splits, we're looking at two sides both worse than average offensively (only barely) and better than average defensively. Factoring in pace, my model is expecting 228.0 points, not 238.0.

Miami Heat at Oklahoma City Thunder

Oklahoma City Thunder +3.0 (-111)
Under 225.0 (-110)

Before you have to scroll through the entire Miami Heat injury list, you'll see the most notable news at the very top.

Butler, Jimmy is out.

Don't worry: I did the work for you by reading the rest of that behemoth of a list to find that Herro, Tyler is probable.

Accounting for that news, the Heat have a relevant net rating for this matchup of -0.9, due to a 108.1 offensive rating and a 109.0 defensive rating. Those are under-friendly numbers without inspiring much confidence in covering on the road.

The Thunder have both Gilgeous-Alexander, Shai and Giddey, Josh healthy. (Now I can be done with that bit.)

With those two, their relevant net rating is -4.8, which isn't great. However, once you account for the matchup, the home-court advantage, and the pace, they do come out as 0.1-point favorites in my model.

Therefore, we can take the 2.5 with some confidence.

The Thunder's defense (117.2 defensive rating) is pretty bad, but that's not enough to overcome two subpar offenses. Thus, the under is the play here on the total.

Portland Trail Blazers at San Antonio Spurs

Over 231.0 (-110)

The Portland Trail Blazers with Damian Lillard are -- unsurprisingly -- a very different team.

With Lillard on the floor, the Blazers have a net rating of +7.0. Without him, they're a -4.2 for a gap of 11.2 points.

The offensive rating also goes from elite (119.7) to below average (108.6). The defensive rating moves by just 0.1 points.

The San Antonio Spurs are without frontcourt staple Jakob Poeltl, and they list Zach Collins as doubtful. Their offensive rating in that split is a positive one (114.1), and that's tied to an over-friendly defensive rating (118.9).

In total, my model thinks this game is a shootout that totals 238.0 points.