NBA Betting Guide for Friday 11/4/22: Why the Trends Like the Pelicans to Cover
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Where do the betting trends identify value in tonight's NBA odds?
Chicago Bulls at Boston Celtics
Chicago Bulls +7.0 (-108)
The Boston Celtics have dropped three of their past four games and now boast a 4-3 record (2-1 at home). Despite a +6.0 point differential at home in those three games, Boston's spread-adjusted number is -0.3.
The Bulls are 5-4 overall and 2-2 on the road and enter with two straight wins. Their spread-adjusted point differential is +4.3 on the road despite a 2-2 record against the spread.
Once accounting for injuries and removing garbage-time possessions from the data, my model likes the Bulls as 4.7-point underdogs rather than the 7.0 mark we're actually getting.
With 220.2 combined points per game (the NBA average is 226.3), the Bulls have been able to slow things down and keep things close and cover in five of nine games.
Los Angeles Clippers at San Antonio Spurs
San Antonio Spurs +4.5 (-110)
The Spurs are a pretty good (if not great) team relative to preseason expectations, and the Los Angeles Clippers are the opposite.
San Antonio is sitting at 5-3 on the year with an opponent-adjusted point differential of -5.8, similar to their raw number (-5.9).
The 4-4 Clippers, though, are at a -5.1, just barely better than their raw rate of -5.3.
The Clippers' playstyle (a league-low 207.3 combined points per game) doesn't leave much room for them to separate, and that's played part in a 2-6 record against the spread (25.0%) with a league-worst -9.7 spread-adjusted point differential.
They're also without Kawhi Leonard and Robert Covington. Without them on the floor, their non-garbage-time net rating is -6.0.
numberFire's model rates the Spurs +4.5 as a three-star play and also likes their moneyline (+158) as a three-star opportunity, as well.
Golden State Warriors at New Orleans Pelicans
New Orleans Pelicans -4.5 (-110)
Over 232.5 (-110)
Yesterday, I broke down the Golden State Warriors' road woes, and they lost outright to the Orlando Magic 130-129.
They're now 0-5 on the road, and Klay Thompson probably won't play on the second night of a back-to-back. Without Thompson on the floor but in games with both Stephen Curry and Draymond Green this season, Golden State's net rating is -6.1.
Golden State now holds the worst road defensive rating (122.4) in the NBA, and this will be their fifth consecutive road game, a streak that has led to losses to the Charlotte Hornets, the Detroit Pistons, the Miami Heat, and the Orlando Magic. None of those teams are better than .500, and they're a combined 11-24.
The Pelicans list both Brandon Ingram and Herbert Jones as probable after each has missed four straight games. In two games this season with Zion Williamson and Ingram playing at least 15 minutes, the Pelicans have been amazing. They're a +20.8 over 173 possessions.
That won't stick, but there are a lot of reasons to like the Pelicans to put up points (a 124.3 offensive rating in this split) against the Warriors' problematic road defense.
