NBA Betting Guide for Friday 10/28/22: Backing Two Favorites and an Underdog
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's NBA odds?
Charlotte Hornets at Orlando Magic
Charlotte Hornets Moneyline (-126) - 4 stars
Charlotte Hornets -2.0 (-110) - 3 stars
Over 220.0 (-110) - 3 stars
There's been notable movement on this game in all sorts of ways.
The total has fallen from 226.5, and we're seeing action on the Orlando Magic shorten the spread for the Hornets (-3.0 to -2.0) and their moneyline (-158 to -126).
The Hornets have yet to see LaMelo Ball suit up this season, and that won't change tonight. They also list Terry Rozier and Cody Martin as doubtful. Without Rozier on the floor this season in medium-to-very-high-leverage situations, the Hornets have a +8.2 net rating over 251 possessions.
The Magic aren't a beacon of health, though, either. Cole Anthony, Jalen Suggs, and others are out. They're a -9.6 without Suggs and Anthony on the floor this season.
Accounting for injuries and sample sizes, my model thinks the spread should be 5.5 in favor of the Hornets. numberFire's algorithm likes the Hornets by 6.6.
Chicago Bulls at San Antonio Spurs
San Antonio Spurs +4.5 (-110) - 5 stars
San Antonio Spurs Moneyline (+160) - 4 stars
The Spurs are off to a hot-for-the-Spurs start. They're 3-2 overall and notably have had just one home game (a loss).
The Chicago Bulls are also 3-2 with a 1-1 record away from home. Lonzo Ball remains out, and Zach LaVine is questionable on the front end of a back-to-back set. With LaVine off the floor this season, the Bulls are still a +6.0 over 278 non-garbage possessions.
However, the Spurs are no slouches. With Devin Vassell and Joshua Primo (both listed as out) off the floor, they're a +8.4 while boasting a nice shot quality rating of 0.55.
Taking the points checks out as a result.
New Orleans Pelicans at Phoenix Suns
Phoenix Suns Moneyline (-290) - 5 stars
Phoenix Suns -7.5 (-110) - 3 stars
Let's go back to a favorite. The Suns are one of the bigger favorites on the docket, yet their spread and moneyline still show value.
The New Orleans Pelicans' injury list is lenghty, and it includes key names: Brandon Ingram (out), Zion Williamson (questionable), C.J. McCollum (questionable), and Herbert Jones (questionable).
The Suns are virtually at full strength and are making good on that health. Their +11.5 point differential ranks second-best in the NBA, and when adjusting for opponents faced, I have their point differential at a +10.3, still second-best in the NBA.
New Orleans, meanwhile, has a +8.8 point differential, yet that falls to a +0.3 when adjusting for opponents.
The spread is trending toward Phoenix (from -6.0 to -7.5), and while we missed out on the best number already, that's not a promising sign for the Pelicans' health.
