NBA Betting Guide for Monday 3/14/22: Take the Points in These 3 Games
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit, and you can track line movement within games and compare odds over at the oddsFire section of the site. You can also track spread bet percentages at NBA odds.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's games? (All odds from NBA odds.)
Denver Nuggets at Philadelphia 76ers
The Denver Nuggets are traveling to face the Philadelphia 76ers after they dropped two straight games (home losses to the Golden State Warriors and the Toronto Raptors).
Meanwhile, the Sixers played yesterday in Orlando, a game that went to overtime before Philadelphia prevailed 116-114.
Our model views this game close and sees the 76ers as 51.3% likely to net the win. That's close enough to where it's finding slight value (one star out of five) on the Denver moneyline (+118).
The better bet is the spread: Denver (+2.5). That's a two-star play and is viewed as 57.2% likely to hit tonight.
Over the past 10 games with Nikola Jokic, my data has Denver at a +1.0 opponent-adjusted point differential with the 76ers at a +4.4 in games with James Harden. Accounting for travel discrepancies, I'm leaning toward Denver +2.5 as well.
Minnesota Timberwolves at San Antonio Spurs
Once again, I am asking you to back the San Antonio Spurs at home.
Despite their 13-21 home record, they have a +0.1 point differential and just a -1.5-point opponent-adjusted point differential.
The Minnesota Timberwolves have been about as neutral a road team as can be (17-18 record, +0.9 point differential, +0.0 opponent-adjusted point differential).
numberFire's model rates the Spurs (+3.5) as a two-star play and sees them as 59.4% likely to cover. That leads to an expected return of 13.4%.
My model likes the spread at 2.0, so there's wiggle room for the Spurs to cover.
Milwaukee Bucks at Utah Jazz
Let's take the points again here.
The Utah Jazz are +1.5 at home, where they are 24-10 overall. The Milwaukee Bucks are 18-14 on the road.
Rudy Gobert is questionable. Since the start of February and in non-garbage situations, the Jazz have an astounding +13.9 net rating without Gobert on the floor. Even if he misses, they should be all right.
Though the Bucks are hot (7-3 in their past 10), their point differential (+6.7) ticks down (+3.8) with opponent adjustments factored in.
numberFire's model loves Utah (+1.5) and the Jazz moneyline (+102) as four-star plays, indicating four-unit possibilities. Utah is rating as 67.8% likely to cover, and the return on each opportunity is at least 29.4%.
