3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Monday 2/28/22
Player props are a fun way to bet the NBA without having to worry about the zaniness that last-minute injuries can cause in terms of a spread or a game total.
Here, we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools and simulations to help make some cash.
For this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place in-game props with ease.
Note: Betting lines and our player projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
D'Angelo Russell Over 6.5 Assists (+112)
This is just the gift that keeps on giving.
D'Angelo Russell's assist prop still sits at 6.5 assists as it did last Wednesday. He posted seven dimes in that one, and he's hit that mark at least seven in six of his nine February games. Overall, Russell is averaging 7.77 assists per 36 minutes, and that's increased to 7.93 in February.
I'll take it.
Even though outliers like the blowout loss in Philadelphia on Friday will happen, Russell, by and large, paces well over this projected total in a full night of work. He's expected to get one as the Timberwolves visit the Cavaliers as three-point road favorites.
Now, Minnesota is first in the NBA in pace, and Cleveland sits just 22nd in that category. There will be a slight downgrade in tempo for D'Lo in this one. However, with just a 47.2% implied chance given by the +112 odds, this bet has too much value to pass up because of pace.
Pascal Siakam Over 21.5 Points (-110)
This season, Siakam sees a team-high 2.5 percentage-point increase in usage rate with Anunoby off the floor. That lift was 4.2 percentage points in February. More shots should help Siakam sail past this points mark should he correct his recent cold spell.
Siakam hasn't hit this mark in four games, shooting just 23-for-65 (35.3%) from the field in that span. This cold front was predated by a hot stretch where Siakam posted at least 22 points in six straight contests. At 21.78 points per 36 minutes this season, he should heat up again soon.
Toronto (22nd in the NBA in pace) will see an uptick in possessions against Brooklyn (8th) on Monday, and all these little upgrades in shot volume could lead to a big night for the All-Star snub.
Steven Adams Under 11.5 Rebounds (+108)
There are enough paths to failure to take Steven Adams' under for rebounding despite the fact he's definitely turned up the heat lately.
Still, landmines fully surround this mark -- the fourth-highest rebounding prop on the slate. Adams has had four or more fouls in four of his last six contests, and the big man has been held under 27 minutes in six of his nine games in February.
This is a massive number without a clear full-time role. As a result, numberFire's model has Adams pegged for a respectable 10.8 rebounds as a median projection, but that doesn't get the job done.
At just a 48.1% implied probability to come short 12 boards here, it's worth a roll of the dice that Monday's game travels down one of the said paths to failure.