FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Helper: Thursday 12/23/21

If you're new to daily fantasy basketball -- maybe you started your DFS journey during the MLB or NFL seasons, or maybe basketball is your sport and this will be your first year giving it a shot -- you're in for a treat. The NBA scene changes on a week-to-week, day-to-day, and -- depending on injury news -- even a minute-to-minute basis, making every slate a unique one that requires an ever-changing approach.

With so much changing so quickly, we're here with plenty of tools to help you out. We have daily projections, a matchup heat map, a lineup optimizer, and a bunch of other great resources to help give you an edge.

Daily fantasy basketball is very reliant on a player's opportunity, so you'll need to make sure that you're up-to-date with key injuries. Our projections update up until tip-off to reflect current news, we have player news updates, and the FanDuel Scout app will send push notifications for pressing updates regarding your players.

We'll also be coming at you with this primer every day, breaking down a few of the day's top plays at each position.

Let's break down today's main slate on FanDuel.

The Slate and Key Injuries

COVID-19 Protocol Update
Due to the advanced number of players in COVID-19 protocols, I want to provide just a manual list of those players moving forward and then discuss the other injury news separately. Only players that significantly impact the slate are listed:

Dallas will be keeping a keen eye on the toe injury of Kristaps Porzingis again. The Mavs are in Utah on Christmas Day, so there is no extended rest period that would imply he's sure to sit tonight. He's officially questionable. On the other side, Grayson Allen (illness) missed last night's game, and his status is up in the air.

Malcolm Brogdon tried to play through an Achilles injury for Indiana on Tuesday and exited the game after seven minutes. He's questionable, but with a break for the Pacers until Sunday, it's hard to see him playing.

The Pelicans will be without Jonas Valanciunas due to a non-COVID illness tonight. Orlando could also be missing Cole Anthony (ankle) and Wendell Carter Jr. (lower leg) on the other side of that one.

Derrick Rose underwent ankle surgery and will be out during the foreseeable future for the New York Knicks.

Tyus Jones is questionable for Memphis due to his finger injury.

Finally, Miami will be without P.J. Tucker for a second straight contest due to his leg injury.

Guards

Dejounte Murray ($9,900): Picking from the upper $9,000 range at guard today is impossible. There are a half dozen options with triple-double upside, but I gave the slight nod to Murray here on the matchup. The Lakers allow the fifth-most FanDuel points per game to primary point guards (48.16), and they're missing Anthony Davis to protect the rim. Derrick White's minutes have become less stable recently, and that's only good news for Murray and enhances his upside.

Ja Morant ($8,900): There's absolutely nowhere to spend salary at wing, personally, so a second stud guard is more than viable in most builds tonight. Morant played 28 minutes in his return, and that's enough to have me confident that he'll likely see 30-plus against Golden State. His usage (24.9%) and per-minute production (1.34 FanDuel points) both passed the smell test in his first game back, and it's a sneaky spot between two top-10 teams in a pace because of a lower 216.5-point total.

Frank Ntilikina ($3,900): Regardless of Porzingis' potential return, it appears the "Frank the Tank" in Dallas has begun. Both Ntilikina and Sterling Brown popped into the starting lineup amidst the Mavs' COVID-19 issues and played 30-plus minutes. Delon Wright goes without saying, but Ntilikina is worth highlighting, as well. Don't let Tuesday's dud sway your perception of his upside; he's averaged a decent 0.74 FanDuel points per minute in other action this year.

Others to Consider:
LaMelo Ball ($9,600): The final spot on the podium went to Ball with a 227.0-point total. Stephen Curry and Russell Westbrook are right there, too.
Bradley Beal ($8,300): Spencer Dinwiddie is playing less, and Beal is scoring more. 37 in his last game. The upside is returning.
Jalen Brunson ($7,400): He's got a higher bust rate at this salary than his popularity will indicate, but the upside is there.
Delon Wright ($4,500): At 0.76 FanDuel points per minute this season, he's got a low ceiling. It barely matters playing 39 minutes, though.

Wings

Khris Middleton ($7,700): With all the value at wing, it's hard to justify the roster spot -- not the salary -- on LeBron James. Middleton is an excellent starting point. Yesterday's helper mentioned Middleton and Holiday share the same role, roughly, when Giannis Antetokounmpo sits. Middleton, though, is found at nearly a $2,000 salary discount. He sat the entire fourth quarter yesterday, which stunted his upside, but it's less likely that happens as five-point favorites over Dallas tonight versus lowly Houston on Wednesday.

Caris LeVert ($6,400): It's hard to see Brogdon playing, so LeVert might finally be worth the popularity he garners. numberFire's projections love him (as they always do), but this time, I can't complain. LeVert sees a team-high 4.8-percentage-point increase in usage when Brogdon is off the floor, and that comes with a boost of 0.09 FanDuel points per minute versus his normal rate. There's too much value to be here, though, if Brogdon does find a way to suit up on Thursday.

Cam Reddish ($4,300): Tonight's singular best value play is Reddish. At just $4,300, Reddish can drop 30 real-life points easily as he did on Wednesday. Reddish had a team-best 29.8% usage rate in that contest with the Magic that he turned into 1.18 FanDuel points per minute. He was the primary ball-handler in this first taste of the Hawks without Trae Young. Bogdan Bogdanovic might play more than he did last night, but not enough to bump Reddish from the top play of the evening.

Others to Consider:
Evan Fournier ($5,600): Both Fournier and Alec Burks are pounding heavy minutes for the Knicks. Not sure which one will pop Thursday.
Mikal Bridges ($5,000): Major blowout watch for Phoenix against Oklahoma City on a back-to-back. He, at least, plays 30-plus minutes no matter the score.
Hamidou Diallo ($4,800): 33 minutes and 31.7 FanDuel points on Tuesday. The safest way to attack the absence of Cade Cunningham.
Otto Porter ($4,500): Might start with Damion Lee in COVID-19 protocols. Played a season-high 29 minutes on Tuesday with Lee active, too.

Bigs

Nikola Jokic ($11,300): This daily fantasy sport is just downright cruel sometimes. Jokic was a total bust and sat the fourth quarter in a decently-competitive game in OKC last night. One evening later, he's the best star on the slate again by a mile. The Hornets can't defend centers; they allow 61.18 FanDuel points per game to pivots. That's over 4.00 FanDuel points per game higher than second. With a 227.0-point total, the dud on Wednesday may be a helpful reduction in popularity on Thursday.

John Collins ($7,700): Collins pounded 41 minutes on Wednesday as Atlanta struggles to find a decent replacement for Clint Capela at the center spot. He has a tremendous floor should those minutes hold again, and his role should continue to be excellent. He averages a team-best 1.09 FanDuel points per minute with Trae Young off the floor this season -- well beyond what's needed to pay off this salary.

Willy Hernangomez ($4,600): Hernangomez has a key advantage over many value centers popping on numberFire's projections -- forward eligibility. Jokic and Mitchell Robinson can still be the pivot anchors in most spots, and Hernangomez makes for a low-risk option with plenty of upside (1.33 FanDuel points per minute this season) at power forward if he sees court time. He'll be a must in the perfect lineup if he slots into Valanciunas' 31.6 minutes per game role, but the playing time could be reduced from that mark.

Others to Consider:
Domantas Sabonis ($8,700): Sabonis actually sees a usage drop when Brogdon sits this season in a limited sample. I still feel like that regresses favorably long-term.
Mitchell Robinson ($5,700): The Knicks are so shorthanded that Thibs can't do Thibs things. Nerlens Noel on the COVID list could mean a full-time Mitch Rob.
Robin Lopez ($5,700): I won't be here tonight, but he'll be popular. Low FanDuel-point-per-minute guy historically, but 37.5 FanDuel points on Wednesday.
Isaiah Stewart ($5,600): The man whose salary never moves. A solid plug seeing roughly 30 minutes. Maybe more shots with Cunningham out, too?