NBA

NBA Betting Guide for Tuesday 12/7/21: Digging Deep for Value

With only three games on tap, our options are limited for finding betting value. What does a look-through reveal?

Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.

But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit, and you can track line movement within games and compare odds over at the oddsFire section of the site.

Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's games? (All odds from FanDuel Sportsbook.)

Brooklyn Nets at Dallas Mavericks

This game -- of the three -- features the best betting value of the night, per numberFire's model.

That comes in the form of the Dallas Mavericks's spread (+4.0), which is receiving a three-star recommendation from our algorithm. Three stars mean three units is the suggestion. Dallas' moneyline (+144) is also a two-star recommendation.

Why side with the Mavericks at the Brooklyn Nets while Luka Doncic is questionable? Well, Kristaps Porzingis is probable, and that helps.

In non-garbage situations in 15 games with Porzingis while Doncic was off the floor, the Mavericks have a net rating of -1.2. That's passable against a Nets team that may be 16-7 but that has a -2.1 spread-adjusted point differential, suggesting they've underperformed expectation.

Adjusting for that relevant sample, my model views the spread (accounting for home-court advantage) to be 1.5 rather than 4.0. numberFire's model sees Dallas covering 60.3% of the time.

New York Knicks at San Antonio Spurs

There is only a lean on this game's spread (New York Knicks -2.0) and moneyline (Knicks -136). Both are getting one-star recommendations -- so a one-unit suggestion.

This is all despite the Knicks entering with a three-game losing streak and the San Antonio Spurs returning home after a three-game road stretch that saw wins over the Portland Trail Blazers and Golden State Warriors before a four-point loss to the Phoenix Suns.

Across the 25 most comparable games to this one in numberFire's database, teams representing the Knicks won at a 56.0% rate and covered in 52.0% of them. That's why it's just a slight recommendation.

Additionally, Knicks have generated the best shot quality rating in the NBA over the past three weeks with the Spurs outside the top 20. They should trend in opposite directions from what the past few games have looked like, meaning the arrow should be up on the Knicks and down on the Spurs.

Boston Celtics at Los Angeles Lakers

Okay, so this one is too tight to call, per the model.

The Los Angeles Lakers are 55.9% likely to win, leaving no moneyline recommendation. The Lakers are listed at -130, implying 56.5% win odds. The expected return on both moneyline bets (the Boston Celtics are +110) is negative.

The same can be said for the spread, though the Celtics (+2.0) is basically even money in case you're absolutely set on betting this game.

My model is a bit higher on the Celtics to cover (57.7%), so again, that's the lean.

numberFire's model does prefer the under (220.5), rating it as a two-star option, to either the spread or moneyline. The Lakers have gone over their own implied team total in half of their games, narrowly besting the league average of 47.8% in an under-friendly start to the NBA season.

The Celtics have fallen short of their own implied team total often, however (in 58.3% of their games).