3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Monday 12/6/21

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up within the betting market to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball.

Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools and simulations to help make money betting player props.

For this article, we are using the odds provided at NBA Finals odds to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.

The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place in-game props with ease.

Please note that betting lines and our player projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.

Jeff Green Under 11.5 Points (-122)

Jeff Green is off to an inauspicious offensive start to the season.

He has averaged only 9.6 points per game across 24.0 minutes (0.40 points per minute). His four-year rate is 0.44 points per minute, so he's underperforming from that regard.

That makes sense when looking at his shooting splits (31.6% from three, down from 36.3% over the past four years in total, and a 52.6% effective field goal percentage, down from a four-year rate of 56.3%).

Green and the Denver Nuggets draw the Chicago Bulls on the road tonight in a game with a healthy total of 217.0. However, numberFire's model projects Green to play to the under.

Across 30.2 minutes, he is projected for just 10.8 points, and if we were to use his four-year averages across his projected volume, he would score only 10.4 points.

Jakob Poeltl Over 11.5 Points (+100)

Jakob Poeltl and the San Antonio Spurs are up against the Phoenix Suns tonight -- in Phoenix.

The Suns are ninth in points per game allowed to opposing frontcourt players (60.7), around 97% of the NBA median. It's not cause for a big adjustment. They're also at the league median in points per game allowed in the paint (41.2).

Poeltl himself is projected for 12.1 points, which puts the over into play at even-money odds.

Poeltl went 7 of 9 from the field for 15 points against the Suns earlier this season.

Robert Covington Under 8.5 Points (-120)

Robert Covington's low-volume ways (6.1 shot attempts per game, 4.6 of which are three-point attempts) don't inspire a ton of confidence for a big point output in any game, but that's true tonight for sure.

The Portland Trail Blazers are up against the Los Angeles Clippers, who allow the 10th-lowest three-point attempt rate in the NBA and the 7th-lowest rate over the past 10 games.

Covington could have trouble getting up his usual shot from deep, and that puts the under very much in play. numberFire is projecting him for only 6.6 points here.

In three games so far against the Clippers, Covington has returned point outputs of 0, 9, and 6 for an average of 5.0 per game.

My prop model, assuming a 6.6-point baseline, sees Covington falling shy of 9 points 70.9% of the time.