FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Helper: Sunday 11/14/21
The NBA scene changes on a week-to-week, day-to-day, and -- depending on injury news -- even a minute-to-minute basis, making every slate a unique one that requires an ever-changing approach.
With so much changing so quickly, we're here with plenty of tools to help you out. We have daily projections, a matchup heat map, a lineup optimizer, and a bunch of other great resources to help give you an edge.
Daily fantasy NBA is very reliant on opportunity, so you'll need to make sure that you're up-to-date with key injuries. Our projections update up until tip-off to reflect current news, and we also have player news updates.
We'll be coming at you with this primer every day, breaking down a few of the day's top plays at each position. The main slate starts at 6 p.m. EST.
C.J. McCollum, SG, (FanDuel Salary: $7,500) - I'm in love with some of the high-end forward options on this slate, so I don't want to spend too much at guard. Enter McCollum. Damian Lillard is out, and that makes McCollum one of the slate's top point-per-dollar plays. McCollum owns a 31.9% usage rate with Dame off the floor this year, per RotoGrinders CourtIQ, which is up 4.6 percentage points from his usual clip. Despite the Portland Trail Blazers drawing a difficult matchup with the Denver Nuggets, our model -- as of early Sunday -- projects McCollum for 43.1 FanDuel points, which is good for a whopping 5.74 per $1,000. He's going to be a chalky play.
Lonzo Ball, PG, $6,100 - Ball also fits the type of build I'm into for this slate. That's not to say the high-salary guards are bad plays; they're not. I'm just prioritizing other spots. Ball is part of a Chicago Bulls-Los Angeles Clippers game that shapes up as a treat for DFS as it holds a 218.0-point total with a 3.5-point spread in favor of LA. The Bulls will be without Nikola Vucevic, and without Vucevic on the floor this year, Ball's usage rate jumps to 20.2% - an increase of 3.2 percentage points. We have Ball producing 35.0 FanDuel points (5.73 per $1,000).
Terry Rozier, PG/SG, $6,100 - Over the last four games, Rozier is averaging 31.7 FanDuel points per game on a team-best (among regulars) 24.4% usage rate. There's a lot to like about him at this salary, and the matchup with the Golden State Warriors makes for a fantasy-friendly environment. The game boasts a slate-leading 226.5-point total with a 5.5-point spread. We have Rozier projected right at his recent production, pegging him to score 31.8 FanDuel points.
Giannis Antetokounmpo, SF/PF, $11,400- Antetokounmpo is probable to make his return, and he'll be suiting up for a Milwaukee Bucks squad that is expected to be sans Khris Middleton, Brook Lopez and Donte DiVincenzo. Prior to sitting last time out, Giannis had posted at least 60.1 FanDuel points in three of his last five games, and he has a 34.0% usage rate with those three guys off the floor this campaign. Our algorithm forecasts Antetokounmpo for 50.2 FanDuel points, and his upside is through the roof.
Kevin Durant, SF/PF, $10,100 - There is some blowout concern for the Brooklyn Nets, who are 9.0-point road favorites versus the Oklahoma City Thunder. But OKC has been competitive for most of the season, losing by double digits only once in their past eight games. The Thunder are permitting the fourth-most FanDuel points per game to small forwards (46.5). KD spearheads Brooklyn in usage (31.1%), and we have him going for 48.1 FanDuel points. Durant's ceiling is massive if this game stays close.
Will Barton, SG/SF, $6,700 - Barton flopped last time out, but in the first two games without Michael Porter Jr., Barton generated 45.7 and 43.0 FanDuel points. He's played at least 33 minutes in five straight and has a 22.1% usage rate this year with MPJ off the court, which is a bump of 1.2 percentage points. For the year, he's averaging 32.1 FanDuel points per night. That's not far off from what he needs for 5.0 per $1,000 (33.5).
Nikola Jokic, C, $11,000 - Jokic has been lights out of late, racking up at least 58.7 FanDuel points in three of his past four. He sees a usage increase of 3.6 percentage points -- the biggest on the Nuggets -- with Porter off the floor, with Jokic's usage rate rising to 34.1% in the split. He's another guy who offers slate-breaking upside. I'll have some of Jokic, but I'll have more Giannis and KD. We project Jokic for a slate-best 52.9 FanDuel points.
Jusuf Nurkic, C, $6,900 - I really like the idea of turning to Nurkic to take advantage of Lillard's absence. Even with Lillard on the floor, Nurkic is averaging a solid 32.8 FanDuel points per game for the season. In the last three games in which he's logged at least 20 minutes, Nurkic has amassed 122.3 total FanDuel points in just 76 minutes. If he can maintain that kind of per-minute efficiency and get more run sans Dame, Nurkic could go off. Our model has him scoring 40.2 FanDuel points, which is 5.83 per $1,000.