FanDuel Single-Game Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 10 Sunday Night (Chiefs at Raiders)
On FanDuel Sportsbook, the Kansas City Chiefs are 2.5-point road favorites over the Las Vegas Raiders in a game with a 52.0-point total. That makes the implied score 27.25-24.75 in Kansas City's favor.
For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5-times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.
Our Brandon Gdula has done a deep dive on single-game strategy, and we have projections for the single-game slate if you select the game from the slate tab. It's worth checking out both of those things before you make your lineups.
Our model projects three players for at least 16.0 FanDuel points -- Patrick Mahomes ($17,000 on FanDuel), Derek Carr ($15,500) and Tyreek Hill ($14,000). They are the three main MVP options and should account for most of the MVP draft percentage.
Even though Mahomes is going through a much-talked-about rough patch, he's still going to see a good amount of MVP love. He should, too. The guy has a lengthy track record of being an extremely good quarterback, and he was blowtorching teams as recently as earlier this season. The Raiders check in as the 13th-worst pass defense, per our metrics, and we have Mahomes projected for 22.5 FanDuel points, a slate-best margin by 2.9 points.
Carr faceplanted last week at the New York Giants, but he'd scored 20.02 and 21.54 FanDuel points in the two games prior. Kansas City is allowing the second-most FanDuel points per game to signal-callers (22.7) and has been pretty miserable defensively until getting to face Daniel Jones and Jordan Love in back-to-back games. Carr should thrive, and our algorithm slates him to score 19.6 FanDuel points.
Hill has seen fantastic usage this year, logging a 26% target share and 37% air yards share. As Mahomes and the offense has slumped, they've leaned heavily on their top receiver, with Hill garnering target totals of 11, 18, 9, 12, 13 and 12 over the past six games. Sign me up. That kind of volume makes Hill pretty matchup-proof -- which is good because Vegas is permitting the third-fewest points per game to receivers (22.3) -- and gives him a monster ceiling. We have Hill amassing 16.6 FanDuel points.
It's rare to have a game where you can make an MVP case for either tight end, but this is one of the few instances where both tight ends have legit upside.
Travis Kelce ($13,500) has a much better on-paper matchup than Hill does. The Raiders are surrendering the fourth-most FanDuel points per game to tight ends (13.9). While Kelce's usage isn't as sexy as Hill's, he's got a 20% target share and 20% air yards share over the last four games.
Darren Waller ($13,000) has a nice matchup, as well, as Kansas City is allowing the sixth-most FanDuel points per game to tight ends (13.5). In the Raiders' first game sans Henry Ruggs, Waller saw 11 targets (23% share) and accounted for 37% of the air yards. He could be a volume monster against this leaky Chiefs pass defense.
We project Waller for 14.3 FanDuel points and Kelce for 13.5.
The Raiders offer better secondary options than the Chiefs do because Kansas City funnels so much of the offense through Hill and Kelce.
Josh Jacobs ($12,500) can have a solid outing Sunday night, especially if the Raiders get out in front, and he might not be very popular if the masses get their Vegas exposure via the passing game.
Jacobs has at least 17 total touches in each of his last four full games (not counting his early exit against the Philadelphia Eagles). He's been targeted 16 times in that stretch, which is a big plus for his outlook, and KC checks in as the third-worst run D by our numbers. We have him going for 11.8 FanDuel points.
Hunter Renfrow ($10,500) had a 19% target share last week sans Ruggs. The floor is solid, but there's not much upside with Renfrow due to his low average depth of target (5.9 yards for the campaign). I have more interest in taking shots on Zay Jones ($6,500) and Bryan Edwards ($8,500), both of whom played at least 93% of the snaps last week, compared to Renfow's 65% snap rate. Also, we could see DeSean Jackson ($6,000) make his debut and assume Ruggs' role as a deep threat.
This is the part where I tell you Edwards failed to catch any of his four looks last week while Jones brought in one of four targets for 20 yards. Yippee. But they should be on the field a lot in a game in which Las Vegas could have to air it out. Plus, we need value somewhere, which makes Jones and Jackson extra enticing.
D-Jax looked to have some juice left in the limited chances he got with the Los Angeles Rams. Big-play upside will always be appealing on single-game slates, especially at $6,000. We just have no idea what kind of role he'll have with the Raiders. However, our model projects Jackson as the top point-per-dollar play among those with a four-digit salary, pegging him to score 5.2 FanDuel points.
On the KC side, Mecole Hardman ($8,000) played 65% of the snaps last week and has been in on at least 60% of the plays in four of the past five games, seeing at least five targets in each contest. That's something.
After Hill and Hardman, every other Chiefs wideout is capable of a goose egg. Byron Pringle ($7,000) is continuing his push for the all-cardio team. He's out-snapped Demarcus Robinson ($6,000) in two straight games but received a total of two targets in that span, including zero last week.
In the backfield, Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($10,000) returned to practice this week but is looking unlikely to play. If CEH suits up, it's hard telling how much work he'd take over right away, but he'd need to at least be on our radar versus a run-funnel Vegas D, one that has allowed the 11th-most FanDuel points per game to running backs (22.6).
If Edwards-Helaire remains out, things are a little easier to project, as Darrel Williams ($11,000) should pace the backfield in snaps and touches, although Jerick McKinnon ($6,000) did play 31% of the snaps last week and is a decently viable dart throw. Our projections account for CEH being out and forecast Williams for 9.4 FanDuel points.