NBA Betting Guide for 4/20/21: Sifting Through All 5 Games for Value
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit, and our oddsFire section of the site allows you to track movement in those lines and see where the action is coming from on particular games.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's games? (All odds from NBA Finals odds.)
Orlando Magic at Atlanta Hawks
The best action in this game looks to be on the over (219.0), because we're seeing the betting public and our algorithm take that side.
Our algorithm is rating the over as just a one-star recommendation out of five (with a median point projection of 221.0) and as 53.4% likely to occur.
Not only are we seeing a majority of betting tickets on the over (65%) but also a smart-money disparity of the percentage of money (86%) compared to the tickets. That's a pretty rare 21-percentage-point gap.
Also of note, our algorithm has the Orlando Magic +12.0 as a two-star recommendation, and the betting public is split on that spread with a slight majority of money (51%) leaning toward the Atlanta Hawks to cover. That's why the over looks most appealing in this one.
Brooklyn Nets at New Orleans Pelicans
Our algorithm is liking the banged-up Brooklyn Nets, who are getting 3.0 points tonight, making the spread a three-star recommendation and also making the Brooklyn moneyline (+130) a two-star recommendation.
We are seeing some smart money on the New Orleans Pelicans' moneyline, though (34% of the tickets but 51% of the money), and so the spread seems like the safer play between the two.
There are 59% of the tickets on the over (233.5) but only 38% of the money, which indicates some heavier action on the under, but our algorithm is siding with the tickets and considers the over a two-star recommendation.
To contextualize all of this, Kevin Durant and James Harden are listed as out. In four games without those two but with Kyrie Irving, the Nets are 2-2 with an offensive rating of 119.2. Their net rating is a +11.0 in that sample, as well. That makes sense for the Nets +3.0 and the over.
Charlotte Hornets at New York Knicks
The public is backing the popular New York Knicks in this game, and there is at least 65% of the tickets and money on both the Knicks' spread (-5.5) and their moneyline (-240).
Though the algorithm isn't loving the spread, it does like the Knicks' moneyline enough to consider it a one-star recommendation. The Knicks are rating out as 72.3% likely to beat the Charlotte Hornets, but the -240 odds suggest a 70.6% chance, giving us some slight value.
Like numberFire's algorithm, there is slight value on the Knicks in my betting model.
Where we're really seeing the heavy betting action is on the over (208.0): 77% of the tickets and 90% of the money. Our algorithm rates the over as another one-star recommendation and as 55.8% likely.
The New York moneyline looks like the best consensus bet, but the over is also in play.
Minnesota Timberwolves at Sacramento Kings
The standout bet here seems like the Sacramento Kings moneyline (-154).
That's a little weird to say with their 23-34 record and 6-9 record over their past 15 games, but the Minnesota Timberwolves are just 5-10 in their past 15 and are 15-43 on the full season.
Based on each team's nERD score, the Kings should have a point differential of -3.1. The Timberwolves should be a -6.3. That's a gap of 3.2 points before accounting for any home-court advantage or recent trends.
That's partly why our algorithm views Sacramento -154 as a four-star recommendation out of five and Sacramento -3.5 as a two-star recommendation.
The betting public is putting roughly 60% of money on the Kings to win outright.
Los Angeles Clippers at Portland Trail Blazers
There is some discord between the betting trends and our model for this game.
The public is favoring the Los Angeles Clippers (67% of the money is on them to cover the 7.5-point spread as the favorite and 80% of the money is on them to win outright on the moneyline at -300).
Our algorithm is pointing toward the Portland Trail Blazers being the sharp play at +7.5 even without Damian Lillard, rating that wager as a three-star recommendation. The Blazers are 2-1 in games without Lillard but with C.J. McCollum with a tight net rating of -0.4. It's not unreasonable to think they keep it close.
But where we do see alignment is on the over: the public has put 67% of the tickets and 59% of the money on the over at 224.0. Our algo views that as a three-star recommendation with 62.4% likelihood. So that's the more sensible place to lean.
