NBA

NBA Betting Guide for 4/13/21: Why the Suns Look Like Values Tonight

Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.

But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit, and our oddsFire section of the site allows you to track movement in those lines and see where the action is coming from on particular games.

Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's games? (All odds from FanDuel Sportsbook.)

Los Angeles Clippers at Indiana Pacers

We've seen some liftoff for this over/under. It opened at 229.5 but is now up to 232.0 after a pretty steady climb. This is despite the fact that 66% of the bets and 60% of the money has come in on the under.

numberFire's algorithm is siding with the betting trends and considers the under at 232.0 a three-star recommendation out of five. The under is rating out at 63.0% likely to occur, which is tied to an expected return of 20.2%. The median projected point total in this game, per our simulations, is 224.9.

The Los Angeles Clippers have some significant injury news tonight: Kawhi Leonard and Patrick Beverley are listed as out. For the Indiana Pacers, they list Myles Turner as out for a fourth straight game.

Without Leonard and Beverley but with Paul George, the Clippers' offensive rating dips to 110.0 -- though that's still better than Indiana's offensive rating without Turner but with Domantas Sabonis and Malcolm Brogdon (108.7).

Using these relevant splits, my model anticipates a point total of just 215.5, so yeah, a lot of reason to like the under.

Los Angeles Lakers at Charlotte Hornets

Speaking of injuries, we have those here.

LeBron James and Anthony Davis remain out. We're up to an 89-minute sample without those two but with Andre Drummond for the Los Angeles Lakers. In that split, their offensive rating is 113.7, and their defensive rating is 109.7 for a net of +4.0.

Without LaMelo Ball but with Terry Rozier, the Charlotte Hornets have similar numbers: a 108.9 offensive rating and a 107.3 defensive rating for a net of +1.7 over 969 minutes.

Those numbers are good enough to like the over at 207.0, down from 208.5 at the open. Those splits should lead to a median point total of 218.0, per my model.

numberFire's algorithm anticipates a median total of 213.7, enough to rate the over a three-star recommendation.

The betting trends are following, too: at least 78% of the tickets and money are on the over.

Miami Heat at Phoenix Suns

The Phoenix Suns are the number-four team in our power rankings, and the Miami Heat are 17th, creating a pretty sizable gap between the two. Despite that, the spread is just 3.0 points in favor of the Suns.

The algorithm, then, is rating the Suns -3.0 as a two-star recommendation but is even stronger on the Phoenix moneyline at -154. Those odds suggest a 60.6% win probability. Our model gives them of 73.1%.

The betting public is seeing it similarly. oddsFire shows us that 73% of the money is on the Suns' moneyline, and 68% of the money is on them to cover the spread.

Phoenix's net rating is +8.2 over the past 15 games (third-best in the NBA), and Miami's net rating is -0.1 (16th).