NBA Betting Guide for 3/26/21: Will the Bucks Beat Boston Again?
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit, and our oddsFire section of the site allows you to track movement in those lines and see where the action is coming from on particular games.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's games? (All odds from NBA Finals odds.)
Boston Celtics at Milwaukee Bucks
This is a rematch from Wednesday when the Milwaukee Bucks beat the Boston Celtics 121-119, which is a tight score -- and Daniel Theis got off a clean look for a game-winning three -- but the Celtics never really had a high win probability at any point in the game, so don't let the final score fool you too much. At the end of the third quarter, the Bucks were up 100-86.
That gave the Bucks an eighth consecutive win, and our algorithm is expecting them to extend the streak to nine. Our algorithm gives Milwaukee an 80.3% chance to win, which makes their moneyline (-230) a four-star recommendation.
The betting public is backing the Bucks, too. Per oddsFire, 78% of the tickets and 73% of the money has been placed on the Bucks' moneyline -- and as for the spread (Milwaukee -5.5), that's gotten 69% of the tickets and 79% of the money.
Our algo sees Milwaukee winning by at least 6 points 61.8% of the time, making their spread a two-star recommendation out of five.
Portland Trail Blazers at Orlando Magic
I'm just throwing this one out there because it's interesting and the algorithm loves it. That's the Orlando Magic -- yes, the team that just traded everyone away -- to cover (+11.5) against the Portland Trail Blazers.
The public really jumped all over Portland today, but Damian Lillard has been ruled out. Sure, they still have C.J. McCollum, and Jusuf Nurkic is expected to play a limited role, but the data without Dame is pretty damning.
The samples are too small to look at with McCollum and Nurkic and without Lillard, but even with McCollum out there and no Lillard, the Blazers are a -3.7 in net rating (and a -8.2 when both are off, which will obviously happen tonight when McCollum rests). That's not very reassuring.
The Magic without Nikola Vucevic, Aaron Gordon, Evan Fournier, and Al-Farouq Aminu are somehow a +4.9 over 319 minutes and have a 98.4 defensive rating in that split.
We're getting a ton of points in this game (11.5) for a team trending down no doubt but against a team that's without its very impactful star. numberFire's algorithm views the Magic moneyline (+490) and the Magic spread (+11.5) as five-star recommendations.
Indianapolis Pacers at Dallas Mavericks
The betting public is going hard at the Dallas Mavericks in this matchup against the Indiana Pacers. So far, 86% of the money has been placed on the Mavericks' moneyline (currently -180), and 79% of the money is on them to cover a 4.0-point spread.
The full-season net ratings for these sides are +1.6 for the Mavericks, who are 23-19 on the year, and +0.0 for the Pacers, who are 20-23. But they are trending in opposite directions.
Over the past 15 games (where you can start to find somewhat of a reliable sample), Dallas ranks third in the NBA in net rating at +7.6 and are 10-5 in that split. Indianapolis is a -2.2 in terms of net rating with just a 6-9 record.
Using that past-15-game data, the Mavericks should be favored by close to 5.5 points as opposed to 4.0, and they are rating out as 66.8% likely to win, according to my model. They're also 52.7% likely to cover, so the moneyline is more appealing than the spread.
Despite the total rising from 227.0 to 229.0, the slow pace for Dallas (28th over the past 15 games) and modest offense for the Pacers makes the under look like another way to get action on this game. numberFire's algorithm rates the under as a two-star recommendation.
Dallas beat Indianapolis 124-112 on January 20th.
