NBA Betting Guide for 3/16/21: 3 Home Teams the Algorithm and Public Like
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit, and our oddsFire section of the site allows you to track movement in those lines and see where the action is coming from on particular games.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's games? (All odds from NBA Finals odds.)
New York Knicks at Philadelphia 76ers
The Philadelphia 76ers are pretty hefty favorites with a -290 moneyline, but our algorithm says it's not enough even without Joel Embiid. (The New York Knicks aren't exactly healthy, either.)
We give Philly an 83.7% chance to win this game outright. A -290 moneyline suggests win odds of 74.4%, so our data is returning the Sixers -290 as a four-star recommendation out of five.
Our nERD rating -- which indicates expected winning percentage based on underlying data -- implies the 76ers should have a point differential of +4.68. The New York Knicks' nERD suggests a point differential of -0.46. Though that 5.14-point gap might suggest the Knicks +7.0 is the right spread bet, the algorithm is rating the 76ers' spread as a two-star recommendation out of five once you account for home court and such. They are rating out 58.8% likely to cover that spread.
The betting public is in line here, too: 76% of the tickets and 86% of the money is on the 76ers' moneyline, and 59% of the tickets and 65% of the money is on the Sixers to cover.
New Orleans Pelicans at Portland Trail Blazers
oddsFire is showing some love for the Portland Trail Blazers in this one by way of 70% of the money on the spread (Portland -1.5) and 57% of the money on the moneyline (Portland -124). Perhaps the return of C.J. McCollum has something to do with it.
The Blazers have played just 333 minutes this season with McCollum and Damian Lillard on the floor together but have a strong +8.3 net rating in that sample.
The New Orleans Pelicans are just on the positive side of NBA average, with a 52.6 nERD (for a +0.76 expected point differential), so an edge should be there if the Blazers' star duo returns to form straight away.
numberFire's algorithm rates the Blazers' moneyline as a two-star recommendation out of five and their spread as a one-star recommendation out of five.
Minnesota Timberwolves at Los Angeles Lakers
Yes, the Los Angeles Lakers are on a back-to-back, but they demolished the Golden State Warriors 128-97 last night, and LeBron James played just over 30 minutes in it.
Our algorithm rates the Lakers' moneyline at -360 as a five-star recommendation out of five and the Lakers' spread of -8.0 as a three-star recommendation. The median projected point total for this contest is 116.0 to 102.9 in favor of the home squad.
The Minnesota Timberwolves have been a much better team with Karl-Anthony Towns than without him, at least. Their net rating with KAT on the floor is -2.1, which is 7.4 points better than their net rating without him, but that still doesn't make them a "good" team. By comparison, the Lakers without Anthony Davis are actually still a +3.3 in net rating.
The gap closes, of course, if we use these samples rather than the full-season data. That's why the moneyline is more appealing even with the juice than the spread is.
But the public is heavy on even the Lakers' spread with 71% of the tickets and money on their side.
