FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Helper: Tuesday 2/9/21

The NBA scene changes on a week-to-week, day-to-day, and -- depending on injury news -- even a minute-to-minute basis, making every slate a unique one that requires an ever-changing approach.

With so much changing so quickly, we're here with plenty of tools to help you out. We have daily projections, a matchup heat map, a lineup optimizer, and a bunch of other great resources to help give you an edge.

Daily fantasy NBA is very reliant on opportunity, so you'll need to make sure that you're up-to-date with key injuries and COVID-19 situations. Our projections update up until tip-off to reflect current news and we also have player news updates.

We'll also be coming at you with this primer every day, breaking down a few of the day's top plays at each position.

Please note: When I'm referencing a player's value figure, it is the number of fantasy points scored for every $1,000 in salary. Typically, a value figure of 5.0 (meaning, 5.0 FanDuel points for every $1,000 in salary) is the minimum baseline we'll be targeting.

Let's take a look at who you should target on tonight's seven-game slate, which locks at 7:00 PM Eastern.

Slate Overview

Via Brandon Gdula's matchup sheet, this table shows each team's spread and implied total (plus the over/under for their game). It also includes opponent-adjusted offensive rating and the adjusted defensive rating for each team's opponent, including league-wide ranks for each.

Teams are sorted by implied team total.

Point Guard

The Studs: Tonight's slate is loaded with a number of studs at point guard, and many of them deserve at least some exposure. Stephen Curry ($10,400) faces the San Antonio Spurs for the second consecutive night after dropping 51.4 FanDuel points on them last night. To date, the Spurs have allowed the most fantasy points to opposing point guards, according to numberFire's defense-versus-position tool. Along with the 51.4 FanDuel points, Curry has also had performances of 69.2 and 69.9 in his last four games.

Despite costing $600 less, Damian Lillard ($9,800) is the top-projected scorer at the position, per our model. Dame isn't listed on tonight's injury report, and he'll square off against an Orlando Magic team that ranks 26th against the point. Kyrie Irving ($9,500) is in that same salary range, and there's plenty of reason to like him with Kevin Durant out. This season, without KD, Spencer Dinwiddie, and Caris LeVert on the court, Kyrie has a team-high 33.4% usage rate to go with a 1.31 FanDuel-point-per-minute average. Irving hasn't showcased the highest of ceilings this season (he's topped 51.7 FanDuel points just three times all season), so an argument can be made that he's a better option for cash games.

Finally, our model is a big fan of De'Aaron Fox ($8,600). Fox has eclipsed 44 FanDuel points in four of his last five games, and he would need 43 to return our baseline value tonight. In order of recommended exposure, I'd rank the studs as Lillard, Curry, Fox, and Irving.

Mid-Range Star: On the back of eight (!!) steals, Dejounte Murray ($6,800) exploded for 65 fantasy points against the Golden State Warriors last night. Well, he's facing them again tonight, and while expecting that kind of total again is unrealistic, Murray should have considerable upside for this match. After all, the 24-year-old only needs 34 fantasy points for a 5.0 value figure, and he's topped that number in 9 of his last 12 outings.

Value Options: Our model's top-two projected values at point guard are Kemba Walker ($5,700) and Cole Anthony ($5,400). Kemba has trumped 34 FanDuel points in two of his three games since Marcus Smart went down. It is worth noting that the Utah Jazz are third-stingiest against the position this season. Meanwhile, Anthony is averaging 31.2 fantasy points over his last four, including 37.3 and 32.1 in his last two outings. In addition to Aaron Gordon and Michael Carter-Williams, the Magic will be down Evan Fournier for tonight's bout with the Portland Trail Blazers, who are ceding the fourth-most fantasy points to the position.

Shooting Guard

Studs to Consider: With KD out, James Harden ($11,000) is definitely one of the top studs to consider on tonight's slate. Harden has topped 55 FanDuel in three of his last five efforts, and he's managed at least 52 in 6 of his 11 games with the Brooklyn Nets.

Donovan Mitchell ($8,000) saw his second-highest usage rate of the season (37.3%) on Sunday with Mike Conley inactive, and he turned that into 52.3 fantasy points. With Conley out again, Mitchell should garner consideration even in a tough matchup with the Boston Celtics.

Core Salary-Savers: There are two cheap options -- Lonnie Walker ($3,500) and Sterling Brown ($3,800) -- very much in play tonight. Walker returns from a two-absence for a Spurs team that will be without Derrick White tonight. Walker has a lineup-killing floor, but it's rare that you can get a player who regularly posts 20 or more fantasy points for the minimum salary. Meanwhile, the Houston Rockets are expected to be sans Victor Oladipo and Christian Wood, which should lead to more volume for Brown, who has put up more than 22 FanDuel points in three of his last four outings.

Value Options: Our model's top two projected values at the position are Terrence Ross ($4,500) and Alec Burks ($4,400). Ross hasn't reached 14 fantasy points in any of his last four games, but with Fournier out tonight, he could have success against a Portland defense that ranks dead last against shooting guards. As for Burks, he's going up against a tougher Miami Heat defense, though he has surpassed 25 FanDuel points in three of his last five contests.

In the mid-range, we can look to Jordan Clarkson ($5,000), Eric Bledsoe ($5,100), or Eric Gordon ($5,900). Clarkson is our algorithm's preferred play of the three. Though he's only reached or exceeded 25 FanDuel points once in his last six games, Clarkson carries plenty of upside at a reasonable salary. Our model has Bledsoe next on the value totem pole. Bled is projected for a 5.4 value figure against a Houston defense that ranks 27th versus shooting guards this season. Finally, in that same matchup, Gordon faces a Pels team that's 26th against the position. The veteran has put up 33.6, 31.0, and 38.4 fantasy points in his last three.

Small Forward

Key Stud: Despite the fact that the New York Knicks are a relatively tough matchup for small forwards, Jimmy Butler ($8,700) has to be one of the top studs to roster tonight. Butler has surpassed 45 fantasy points in 6 of his last 7, and he's managed at least 41.5 in 8 of his 10 healthy outings this season.

Jerami Grant ($7,800) is worthy of consideration against the defensive-deficient Nets. Grant has topped 41 fantasy points 12 times this season, and that includes outputs of 45.8 and 53.8 in two of his last three. His upside is sky-high for this matchup.

Honorable Mention: Brandon Ingram ($8,900) has amassed 42.8, 45.7, and 57.9 FanDuel points in his last three games. He's worth considering at a thin position, but his salary is a bit high for my taste.

Mid-Range Stars: So far this camaign, the Philadelphia 76ers are surrendering the sixth-most fantasy points to small forwards -- enter Harrison Barnes ($6,900). Barnes has managed at least 36 FanDuel points in six of his last eight contests, and that includes four games with more than 41. The 28-year-old would only need 34.5 to achieve five-times value tonight.

Golden State's frontcourt remains thin, and Kelly Oubre ($6,700) should continue to benefit from that. Oubre has totaled at least 34.3 FanDuel points in four of his last eight games, and that includes outings of 38.2, 40.3, and 56.6. He should be able to have success against a San Antonio team that ranks 22nd against small forwards.

Value Options: Joe Harris ($5,100) has put up at least 29.2 FanDuel points in four of his seven games without KD on the court this season, and tonight he'll face a Detroit Pistons team that's allowing the fourth-most made three-pointers to small forwards this season, per FantasyPros.

Our model's second- and third-best projected values at the position, respectively, are Joe Ingles ($4,500) and Keldon Johnson ($5,300).

Power Forward

Studs to Consider: Of the four power forwards with a salary above $7,500, only Julius Randle ($9,000) doesn't face a team that's top-seven against the position. But Randle doesn't possess the upside you'd prefer from a player in his salary range, especially in tournaments. While the 26-year-old has posted fewer than 40 FanDuel points just 3 times in his last 19 games, he has also managed 50 or more just twice in his last 17 outings.

In tournaments, I'd prefer to pay up for Jayson Tatum ($9,700) despite his tough draw. Tatum has put up more than 45 fantasy points four times in his last six games, and that includes outputs of 54.8 and 55.4 in two of his last three.

One more "stud" to consider is Draymond Green ($7,500). Draymond has racked up 39.7, 54.7, and 38.0 FanDuel points in his last three games, reaching double-digit assists in each of those contests. The Spurs are below-average (19th) at defending power forwards in 2020-21.

Honorable Mention: Bam Adebayo ($8,800) is our model's top-projected scorer at the position.

Mid-Range and Value Options: This season, the Pistons rank dead last against power forwards while Brooklyn is 28th -- that means that both Jeff Green ($4,900) and Blake Griffin ($5,300) are in play today. Green has had 23.4 FanDuel points or fewer in seven of his last nine outings, so this is definitely a buyer beware situation. However, KD's absence and the mouth-watering matchup could be enough to make him a top value play on this slate. Meanwhile, Griffin has had 20.5 or fewer in six of his last nine, although he recorded 33.4, 36.4, and 35.6 in the other three. He's a shell of himself, but there's still some fantasy upside left for the 31-year-old.

If you need to save some salary, Isaiah Stewart ($3,600) also gets that tasty matchup against Brooklyn. Stewart is just $100 above the minimum, which means he'd need only 18 FanDuel points to accrue a 5.0 value figure -- he's topped 18 in three of his last five games.

Center

Key Stud: The Sixers have the second-highest implied total on the slate, which means we'll look to Joel Embiid ($10,600) as one of the top studs. Embiid has amassed at least 52.3 FanDuel points in six of his last eight games, and he has only posted fewer than 42.2 once in his last 10 outings. numberFire's algorithm projects Embiid to be the highest scorer on the entire slate tonight.

Honorable Mention: Nikola Vucevic ($8,700) has gone for at least 40 fantasy points (often with ease) 9 times in his last 12 efforts, and our model projects him to produce 47.0 tonight against Portland.

Core Value Plays: For the second consecutive night, our model projects DeMarcus Cousins ($6,000) to be the best value play on the entire slate. Cousins disappointed with only 29.3 fantasy points last night, but he is still averaging 40.9 FanDuel points per game in the six contests that Christian Wood has missed this season.

The Warriors don't have much of (or any) an interior defense, and that helped catapult Jakob Poeltl ($5,500) to 38.2 FanDuel points in yesterday's matchup. It was the second time in his last three outings that Poeltl has put up at least 38 (he had 44.1 against the Minnesota Timberwolves last Wednesday).