3 NBA FanDuel Studs to Target on 2/2/21

Basketball is the most consistent sport for daily fantasy purposes.

A top slugger in baseball will have his fair share of 0-for-4 days, and an elite fantasy football player is at risk of having games where his team's offense as a whole is shut down. A high-salaried NBA stud is generally going to get his, though. With so many possessions in a game providing opportunities to produce, top fantasy basketball options will be posting high scores just about every night.

While this consistency puts us in a good position to identify top plays, it also means you can't afford to miss when you're paying a heavy salary to roster someone. Even with strong value plays in your lineup, getting a dud from a stud is likely going to leave your lineup lacking.

Let's get right into it and look at which top players should be the focal points of your lineups today.

Paul George, SG, Los Angeles Clippers

FanDuel Salary: $8,400

We aren't light on stars and have quite a robust selection at the top, but we don't really need to put forth top dollar in salary to roster some difference-makers.

Paul George and the Los Angeles Clippers are playing the Brooklyn Nets, whose defense is historically bad since acquiring James Harden. They've allowed 117.4 points per 100 possessions in games Harden has played in, and the total in this game is 243.5 points. The spread is only 1.5 points.

While we haven't seen a true ceiling game from George in sometime, he has had at least 39.1 FanDuel points in four of his past five. George's salary is down $500 from where he was in his last game, so a lot is trending toward a situation where George can erupt through his salary-implied expectation.

numberFire projects George for 44.8 FanDuel points, which is 5.33 per $1,000 in salary, comfortably the best value rating among all players with a salary of at least $7,500 tonight. By the sheer nature of the extra possessions and the added efficiency due to the Nets' poor defense, George shouldn't really disappoint here.

Damian Lillard, PG, Portland Trail Blazers

FanDuel Salary: $10,200

The other elite game on the board is between the Portland Trail Blazers and Washington Wizards. The total there is 240.5 points, and the spread is just 2.0 points in favor of the home Wizards. This, then, sets up really well for Damian Lillard to bounce back from a down game last night in a blowout loss to the Milwaukee Bucks.

Lillard played only 27.4 minutes and shot 6 of 13 from the field, the second-fewest shot attempts he has posted all season. The good news, then, is that he didn't log heavy minutes and should be fresh enough to take advantage of the matchup tonight. The Wizards rank dead last against point guards after adjusting for the opponents they have faced.

Lillard should be freed up to do his thing in this spot, and that thing includes averaging 1.33 FanDuel points per minute with a 31.4% usage rate over 320-plus minutes without C.J. McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic on the floor this season, via RotoGrinders' CourtIQ tool.

Jayson Tatum, PF, Boston Celtics

FanDuel Salary: $9,500

Outside the two elite games with high totals, we also have to consider some opportunity cost. Yes, we've got stars. But we also can't overlook the few power forwards with untouchable floors and ceilings. At power forward, there's a massive drop off after Domantas Sabonis and Jayson Tatum. We project each of them for at least 14.0 more FanDuel points than any other power forward, so yeah, it gets pretty real at power forward.

When we're nitpicking the point guards, shooting guards, and small forwards, we should keep in mind that gap that exists at power forward.

Sabonis is numberFire's preference, as his Indiana Pacers draw the Memphis Grizzlies, but I've got Tatum just ahead in a matchup against the Golden State Warriors. The individual matchup prefers Tatum if we look at player-adjusted FanDuel points per minute allowed. Tatum also has an edge in usage rate (30.0% to 23.9%) and FanDuel points per minute (1.26 to 1.18).

The game data slightly favors the Boston Celtics, too, with a 225.5-point total compared to 221.0 for the Pacers.

When stacking the Nets, Wizards, Clippers, and Blazers, just don't forget how big a gap we're likely to see with these two stud power forwards.