NBA Betting Guide: Saturday 1/16/21

numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, game line, or moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.

For example, if you would usually bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.

Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets for tonight.

Atlanta Hawks at Portland Trail Blazers

Blazers -4.5: 4-Star Rating out of 5
Blazers Moneyline (-194): 5-Star Rating out of 5

The Portland Trail Blazers have unfortunately seen this before. On Thursday night, star center Jusuf Nurkic fractured his wrist, another in a long line of injuries to star Blazers big men over the years.

Already without Zach Collins -- who recently underwent surgery -- the Blazers will need to shift their lineup around. Whether that means putting in Enes Kanter into the starting five or playing a smaller lineup and shifting Robert Covington over from the four is yet to be seen. Regardless of the move, our model still sees the Blazers in a good place tonight when they host the Atlanta Hawks.

The Hawks are coming off a 24-point thrashing at the hands of the Utah Jazz last night. The Hawks put up just 92 points, the third time in the past two weeks that they've scored fewer than 100 (incidentally, our model doesn't have a pick on the over/under, but the under is 7-0 in 2021 Hawks games).

In their past 10 games as home favorites against opponents playing on no rest, the Blazers have gone 10-0 straight up (SU) and 7-3 against the spread (ATS), winning and covering by an average of 9.1 and 2.3 points, respectively. We see those marks going to 11-0 and 8-3 after they play the Hawks tonight.

We give the Blazers an 82.4% chance of winning and a 67.1% chance of covering the 4.5-point spread. We mark the bets as four- and five-star plays, respectively.

Philadelphia 76ers at Memphis Grizzlies

Sixers Moneyline (-120): 3-Star Rating out of 5

Over the past couple seasons, the Philadelphia 76ers have won 66.7% of their games with Joel Embiid and just 45.2% of their games without him. Embiid is out tonight against the Memphis Grizzlies, but our model indicates that the Sixers are still in line for a win, albeit a close one.

Philadelphia has won three of their past four against Memphis, most recently winning by 12 points in February of last year. While Embiid didn't miss that game, he didn't play in the second half due to a stiff neck.

The Grizzlies are sitting a half game out of playoff seeding in the Western Conference, but they'd be in a much better position had their home record been even slightly better. Memphis comes into tonight just 1-5 at FedExForum, where they've had winning records the last two seasons.

Memphis is coming off three straight wins. They've lost three of their last four when coming off a win streak of that size. We see that moving to four losses in their past five in those situations after they play the Sixers tonight.

We give Philly a 63.9% chance of walking away with a win. With an expected return of $117.10 for every $100 wagered, we mark the bet as a three-star play.