3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Monday 2/3/20
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash), to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball.
While you can use those odds in fantasy, you can also utilize our fantasy projections and a variety of other tools to help make money on betting everyday player props.
For the purposes of this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint three spots where value can be had on a player's stat line, scoring, or even shot type.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Bradley Beal, Over 32.5 Points
Bradley Beal and the Washington Wizards host the Golden State Warriors tonight in the first meeting between the two teams. Beal has recorded six-straight games of 30 points or more and seven consecutive with 29 points or more. Beal's ceiling (57.53) is the highest of available shooting guards, and the Warriors and Wizards both struggle to stop opposing shooting guards. The Warriors are allowing the second-most points per game to shooting guards (24.99), only trailing the Wizards (26.26). They are the two-worst in three-pointers made by the opponent's shooting guards. They are the only two teams that allow over four made-three pointers per game.
numberFire projects Beal to record 31.5 points hitting the under so slightly, but a league-best 3.8 made three-pointers tonight. He's led the Wizards in scoring nine of the last 10 games, averaging 32 points per game during that span. Beal shot slightly over 50% from the field in the month of January, and since finding out he was snubbed from the All-Star Game he's had back-to-back 34 point games versus Brooklyn and Charlotte. I like Beal to continue his 30-point streak tonight, and attempt more than his 8.2 three-pointers attempted in his last five home games.
Collin Sexton, Over 21.5 Points
Collin Sexton had the best month of his career in January, scoring 22.7 points per game for the Cleveland Cavaliers. He closed out the month scoring 20 points in four of his last five games and started off February with 23 points versus Golden State. The Cavs host the New York Knicks tonight, and the Knicks are allowing 23.51 points (14th) to opponent's point guards on the season. The Knicks also rank 25th in opponent free-throw attempts per game (25.5) which is are freebies to Sexton who's only missed four total free-throws in 17 games. He's shooting 92.8% on 52-of-56 makes from the charity stripe during that 17-game stretch.
Sexton has scored 19 or more points in 14 of his last 17 games and numberFire pegs him at 19.3 points tonight making this a close call. I didn't expect Sexton to top 20 points versus Toronto, and he looked great scoring 23 points versus one of the best defense in the league. The Knicks have allowed Terry Rozier to score 30 points, Dillon Brooks 27 points, and Ja Morant 18 points to name a few guards that have found success scoring versus New York in their last three games.
Buddy Hield, Over 18.5 Points
Buddy Hield has a favorable matchup tonight coming off the bench versus the Minnesota Timberwolves. The Wolves currently allow the fourth-most points in the league to opponent's shooting guards (24.10), and 2.8 made three-pointers (11th) per game. Minnesota's defense has been their downfall as they're allowing opponents to shoot 46.5% from the field (21st), and second-worst to only the Kings in opponent free-throw percentage (79.7%).
Hield has recorded 19 or more points in four of his last five games averaging 28 minutes played during that stretch. Hield has the fifth-highest ceiling value tonight (7.56) among shooting guards, and numberFire's model has him at 17.1 points in 27.92 minutes tonight. I like the over as Minnesota allows the fifth-most points per game (115.4), and the fact that Hield erupted for a career-high 42 points versus Minnesota in their second meeting of the season (Jan 27). Hield also scored 17 against Minnesota in the first meeting of the season with both games going into overtime.