Re-Drafting the 2006 NBA Draft Using Advanced Analytics
What Happened
To recap, here are the top 10 picks of the 2006 NBA Draft, including each player's career measures in value over replacement player (VORP), nERD, win shares per 48 minutes, and total win shares.
| Pick | Team | Player | VORP | nERD | WS/48 | WS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toronto Raptors | Andrea Bargnani | -0.9 | -29.1 | .057 | 18.9 |
| 2 | Chicago Bulls | LaMarcus Aldridge* | 20.9 | 60.4 | .151 | 81.0 |
| 3 | Charlotte Bobcats | Adam Morrison | -2.9 | -17.4 | -.021 | -1.4 |
| 4 | Portland Trail Blazers | Tyrus Thomas* | 1.7 | -8.9 | .078 | 13.0 |
| 5 | Atlanta Hawks | Shelden Williams | -1.2 | -3.2 | .085 | 9.9 |
| 6 | Minnesota Timberwolves | Brandon Roy* | 15.2 | 29.3 | .155 | 37.4 |
| 7 | Boston Celtics | Randy Foye* | 3.8 | -29.2 | .061 | 23.2 |
| 8 | Houston Rockets | Rudy Gay* | 16.7 | -15.9 | .086 | 47.1 |
| 9 | Golden State Warriors | Patrick O'Bryant | -0.2 | -1.3 | .046 | 0.5 |
| 10 | Seatte Supersonics | Mouhamed Sene | -0.5 | -0.5 | .052 | 0.3 |
Needless to say, the shot in the dark the Toronto Raptors took on Andrea Bargnani didn't work out the way they wanted. In his seven seasons with the team, the Italian seven-footer played in at least 75 games and scored at least 15 points a game just twice, as he struggled with injuries and the shift in playing style.
As for LaMarcus Aldridge and Rudy Gay, they've been above average players in their careers -- right below stars but above the wide majority of NBA players. The crazy thing is those two players were among the five different players traded in the top 10 of the 2006 draft.
Through several trades, Aldridge and Brandon Roy ended up in Portland together, Tyrus Thomas wound up with the Bulls, Randy Foye landed with the Timberwolves, and Rudy Gay settled in with the Memphis Grizzlies after all was said and done.
The Blazers and Grizzlies had to be pleased with the trades, but the Bulls and Rockets probably regret pulling the trigger.
Then there's Adam Morrison, who was a great player in college with the Gonzaga Bulldogs, but failed Michael Jordan and the expansion Bobcats. He played only three seasons in the NBA before calling it quits.
Like Morrison, Shelden Williams and Patrick O'Bryant were also beneficiaries of standout college performances, but in 10 combined seasons, the two tallied a total of just 10.4 win shares.
