Re-Drafting the 2006 NBA Draft Using Advanced Analytics
What Should've Happened
Now, if we sort the draft by players with the highest VORP over their first five NBA seasons, the results are almost completely different.
| Pick | Team | Player | VORP | nERD | WS/48 | WS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toronto Raptors | Paul Millsap | 31.5 | 58.7 | .157 | 74.7 |
| 2 | Chicago Bulls | Kyle Lowry | 27.5 | 34.9 | .145 | 61.6 |
| 3 | Charlotte Bobcats | Rajon Rondo | 21.2 | 11.0 | .115 | 51.6 |
| 4 | Portland Trail Blazers | LaMarcus Aldridge | 20.9 | 60.4 | .151 | 81.0 |
| 5 | Atlanta Hawks | Rudy Gay | 16.7 | -15.9 | .086 | 47.1 |
| 6 | Minnesota Timberwolves | Brandon Roy | 15.2 | 29.3 | .155 | 37.4 |
| 7 | Boston Celtics | Thabo Sefolosha | 12.5 | 1.1 | .097 | 32.4 |
| 8 | Houston Rockets | Ronnie Brewer | 10.7 | 16.3 | .127 | 30.4 |
| 9 | Golden State Warriors | J.J. Redick | 8.5 | 27.9 | .134 | 43.1 |
| 10 | Seatte Supersonics | P.J. Tucker | 7.2 | -3.3 | .088 | 18.1 |
When looking at the top of this list, there's quite a few notable names. From Paul Millsap to Rudy Gay, they've all had really good careers through 10-plus seasons. Each of them have at least 47 win shares to their name.
It turns out that in hindsight, Millsap would've been the best top overall pick for the Raptors. He's not only performed the best, but he'd also fill the power forward gap that's been missing since the departure of Chris Bosh.
Going from a player who could've been drafted by Toronto to one who's starting at point guard for them, Kyle Lowry went largely unnoticed out of Villanova and has performed as the second-best player in the draft class.
Thabo Sefolosha, J.J. Redick and P.J. Tucker have proven themselves to be valuable role players in the NBA, while Brandon Roy enjoyed a few star years in Portland before his knees gave out. It wouldn't have been too bad of a top 10 had it shaken out this way.
