FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Monday 6/12/23
Monday's seven-game slate is on the smaller side, but the top matchups for both pitchers and stacks are quite enticing tonight.
Our daily helper is available every day to analyze FanDuel's main slate and help give you a starting point when you're building lineups. Be sure to also incorporate our great tools into your research process. Whether you're looking for daily projections, the latest starting lineups and weather, or batting and pitching heat maps to find the best matchups -- we've got you covered!
Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.
Pitching Breakdown
James Paxton ($9,800) continues to be a pleasant surprise for the Red Sox, and he's coming off a fantastic outing against Cleveland that tied his season-best in strikeouts (9) and set season-highs in innings (7) and FanDuel points (52).
The veteran left-hander has the ideal matchup to keep that momentum going at home against the Rockies.
Paxton now has five 2023 starts under his belt, and his 33.0% strikeout rate and 31.1% called-plus-swinging-strike rate are tops on the slate. In fact, if he had enough innings to qualify, he would crack the league's top five in both categories.
While walks can be an issue, Paxton's gotten it to a respectable 8.3% rate, and he's kept it below that mark in his last two starts. But his main concern is giving up home runs, which he's allowed at a clip of 1.38 per 9 innings off a sky-high 48.4% fly-ball rate. The good news is he's kept the ball in the park in back-to-back starts against offenses lacking power, and he might be able to make it three in a row tonight.
When factoring in Colorado's injuries to C.J. Cron, Kris Bryant, and Charlie Blackmon, the team's numbers against left-handers are astoundingly bad. In the split, their active roster has a 61 wRC+, 30.0% strikeout rate, 7.7% walk rate, and .147 ISO. If we switch the split to their away numbers, the results are similar: a 73 wRC+, 28.0% strikeout rate, 7.7% walk rate, and .111 ISO.
Any way we slice it, this is an incredible opportunity for Paxton to post a massive score. He's also logged 100 or more pitches in three of his past four outings, so his workload remains excellent, as well.
The obvious pivots away from Paxton are Zach Eflin ($10,800) and Jesus Luzardo ($9,500), who are also in plus matchups. While Eflin probably has the safer floor versus Oakland, Luzardo's might have the easier path to strikeouts against Seattle.
Similar to Paxton, Luzardo is fresh off one of his best starts of the year (52 FanDuel points versus Kansas City), and he's now at a 3.50 SIERA, 28.2% strikeout rate, and 6.6% walk rate over 13 starts. While the Marlins have held him to pitch counts of 93 pitches and below across his last five games, that hasn't stopped him from recording 7-8 strikeouts in each one over that span.
The Mariners have their share of power hitters, but this active roster also has the tendency to strike out, owning a 27.3% against left-handed pitching. Between the K potential and a fairly modest salary, Luzardo could be a popular play.
We've attacked the A's numerous times this season, so Eflin's inclusion goes without saying. Between a 25.7% strikeout rate, 3.5% walk rate, and 53.9% ground-ball rate, the righty has put up a pristine 3.20 SIERA, and he's logged at least six innings in seven straight appearances. In a bit of a surprise, Oakland's put together a five-game win streak, but on the year, their active roster's at just a 95 wRC+ and 24.9% strikeout rate versus right-handers.
Eflin's slate-high salary and a wonky workload that can range anywhere from 80-100 pitches arguably place him behind Paxton and Luzardo, but he is absolutely a contender to lead the slate in scoring. The Athletics have the slate's worst implied team total (3.36).
The other arm in this salary range is Logan Webb ($10,600), and while I certainly won't write him off tonight, he lags behind due to a much more difficult matchup against St. Louis. Despite the team's struggles as a whole, the Cardinals are an above-average offense with an upside-suppressing 20.5% strikeout rate versus righties.
With both Paxton and Luzardo being close-ish to Bryce Miller ($9,000) in salary, he probably isn't someone to prioritize, particularly after getting lit up in back-to-back starts. This is a soft landing spot against the Marlins, though, and that's reflected by their 3.66 implied team total.
However, Miller's ceiling could be capped; he has a middling 21.7% strikeout rate, and Miami isn't a great team for punchouts. He'll likely need a quality start and a win to contend tonight, along with some lesser efforts from the night's other top options.
Hitting Breakdown
The Boston Red Sox not only have one of the evening's top pitching options, but their offense is one of the best stacks, too. Struggling right-hander Connor Seabold is taking the mound for Colorado, and expectations are low for him, as Boston boasts a slate-best 5.66 implied team total.
Seabold pretty much checks all the boxes, coming in with a 4.99 SIERA, 16.7% strikeout rate, 7.9% walk rate, and 35.1% ground-ball rate. While he's poor against both sides of the plate, left-handed batters can take advantage of an ugly 5.95 xFIP and 14.1% strikeout rate in the split.
This bodes well for a Sox offense featuring lefties at various salary tiers in Rafael Devers ($3,700), Masataka Yoshida ($3,600), Alex Verdugo ($3,200), and Triston Casas ($2,500). Among the righty sticks, Adam Duvall ($2,800) returned to the lineup last week and will hopefully be able to rekindle some of his early-season magic, while Justin Turner ($2,900) remains a solid fixture out of the three-hole.
The Texas Rangers are another standout stack in a plus matchup versus lefty Tyler Anderson. Anderson has generally been a decent pitcher over his career, but he hasn't been able to figure it out in 2023. In fact, his numbers are actually worse than even Seabold's, as he's produced a 5.76 SIERA, 14.5% strikeout rate, 10.7% walk rate, and 33.9% ground-ball rate.
The southpaw has an alarming 6.16 xFIP versus right-handed batters, so try to make room for Adolis Garcia ($3,800) and Marcus Semien ($4,100) when you can, but all of Josh Jung ($3,400), Jonah Heim ($3,300), Mitch Garver ($3,300), and Ezequiel Duran ($2,900) have enough power to take advantage, too. Corey Seager ($4,200) has been stellar against lefties for years now, so he should be on your wishlist, too.
The Tampa Bay Rays are facing Oakland, which automatically puts them in play because of the A's terrible bullpen. But when you throw in starter James Kaprielian on top of that, they're right there at or near the top with Boston and Texas.
Kaprielian fits in with Seabold and Anderson, owning a 5.60 SIERA, 18.6% strikeout rate, 12.9% walk rate, and 27.0% ground-ball rate. When it comes to splits, though, we're really upping the ante; the right-hander has a 7.07 xFIP against left-handed batters. Wander Franco ($3,900), Josh Lowe ($3,700), and Luke Raley ($3,100) are the top guys who can abuse this split. Kaprielian is still just an average strikeout pitcher in same-sided matchups, so we can still tap into all the righty power in the lineup, too.
The Philadelphia Phillies should also be high on your list. Left-hander Tommy Henry gives us a fourth matchup lacking anything to scare us, as he has a mere 5.58 SIERA, 14.3% strikeout rate, 10.1% walk rate, and 41.7% ground-ball rate this season. Henry's recorded poor numbers against both sides of the plate, but he's actually been worse versus lefties over his young career, so even Bryce Harper ($3,600) and Kyle Schwarber ($3,500) could feast. Nick Castellanos ($3,400) is the only other batter above $3,000, giving this stack loads of value, as well.
