MLB Betting Guide for Thursday 6/8/23: Will the Mets Avoid a Sweep?
Betting on baseball can be a grind that reaps an enormous reward.
Day-to-day outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due to positive -- or negative -- regression.
Which MLB betting odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Over 8.5 (-112)
The ERAs for these starting pitchers are tidy, which might have otherwise made this total at a hitter-friendly park too low.
The Diamondbacks should lead the charge for this over today against Josiah Gray, and Gray's 3.10 ERA is mostly a fib. He's got a 4.46 expected ERA (xERA) and 5.10 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) behind it, and Gray's previous issues with the long ball have been replaced by a low strikeout rate (19.0%) leaving too much to chance. The Nationals' bullpen also has MLB's worst xFIP (4.99) since May 1st.
Arizona's .766 OPS against righties is the fifth-best mark in baseball, so they're favorites for a reason, but don't discount the Nats' ability to potentially make Merrill Kelly sweat.
Kelly's 3.80 SIERA is still a strong mark, but he's likely being valued closer to his 2.87 ERA. His profile has taken an odd turn where he's in line to post the highest rate of Ks in his career (27.6%), but he's also surrendering a higher 37.2% hard-hit rare this season. The low-whiff Nationals (19.3% strikeout rate versus righties) could prove to be an unexpectedly difficult matchup.
Twins ML (+104)
Will the Tampa Bay Rays ever cool off?
They are 28-6 at home this season, which you can see the public has definitely caught onto if FanDuel Sportsbook's spread splits are any indication. They're moneyline favorites (-122) with an underdog runline because of their pitching deficit today.
Minnesota will send Bailey Ober to the bump, and the skyscraper-sized righty has made his imprint with a 3.64 xERA this season. His 23.9% strikeout rate would also represent a career-high mark in a full season. Even if he struggles, the Twins' bullpen (4.09 xFIP; tied for 12th-best in MLB) has been serviceable all year.
The same can't be said for the Rays. They'll follow Yonny Chirinos (5.71 SIERA) with a bullpen that holds the league's second-worst xFIP (4.83).
While Tampa does lead the league in wRC+ against righties (125), Minnesota's 101 wRC+ is good enough with this substantial pitching edge.
Braves -1.5 (+108)
Set to face a righty, New York has scuffled to a .695 OPS against right-handers since May 1st, but it gets worse. They'll likely be without Pete Alonso today after he took an errant pitch off the wrist in yesterday's game. However, it gets even worse.
Atlanta's right-hander is Spencer Strider, who has an undeniable case for the NL's Cy Young at the moment. His 2.63 SIERA and 40.6% strikeout rate are the best marks you'll see this side of Jacob deGrom, yet somehow, things get even worse for the Metropolitans.
They're turning to Justin Verlander, and the aging pitcher just hasn't been himself to this stage with New York, compiling a 4.35 SIERA and a 20.5% strikeout rate that would be his lowest since 2014.
If, against all odds, the Mets are covering a run (or winning) late, their bullpen (4.51 xFIP) has also been a step behind the Braves (4.29) this year. It's tough to visualize them coming away with a competitive effort in this one.