MLB Betting Guide for Friday 5/12/23: Deciphering the Close Betting Line in Cardinals-Red Sox
Betting on baseball can be a grind that reaps an enormous reward.
Day-to-day outlooks can be vastly different by starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due to positive -- or negative -- regression.
Which MLB lines from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Cincinnati Reds at Miami Marlins
Under 7.5 (-105)
Two of the worst offenses in baseball against righties are the predominant reason for this bet, but a fun debut helps, too.
Eury Perez makes his MLB debut for the Marlins today, and the highly-touted prospect appears to have earned this in full force. The 6'8" fireballer sports a 2.82 xFIP with Double-A Pensacola, including a dominant 35.9% strikeout rate. Perez will get a soft landing spot against Cincinnati, who tout just an 83 wRC+ (tied for sixth-worst in MLB) against right-handed pitching.
The Reds will counter with Graham Ashcraft, and Ashcraft's 3.82 ERA -- playing half his contests at a top-five hitter's park -- isn't totally fool's gold. His 4.11 expected ERA (xERA) isn't bad, and he's allowing just a 35.9% hard-hit rate allowed. Miami has bottom-five marks in wRC+ (80) and OPS (.651) against righties.
This short total for a rookie making his debut makes quite a bit more sense upon further examination.
St. Louis Cardinals at Boston Red Sox
Cardinals ML (-102)
It's strange the Red Sox are favored here. It's even stranger they're getting 63% of bets at this number, so if this is a trap, public bettors have created it.
Boston is sending James Paxton to the mound today. Yes, that James Paxton, the former Seattle lefty who hasn't made a big-league appearance since 2021. Paxton's baseball career is still going, but he's struggled quite a bit in his rehab to return to the big-league club this season. He's posted a 5.29 xFIP with Triple-A Pawtucket.
The Sox also have one of the league's worst bullpens (4.40 xFIP), and they'll have to hold off a Cardinals offense with at least a .738 OPS in both splits. Can they outscore them? I don't think so, either.
Adam Wainwright will toe the slab for the Redbirds today, and Wainwright deserved far better from his debut than his 7.20 ERA would suggest. His skill-interactive ERA (3.47 SIERA) is outstanding behind a minuscule 22.2% hard-hit rate allowed. St. Louis also has the fifth-best bullpen by xFIP (3.84).
I'd favor the Cardinals in every dimension of this matchup.
San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers
Over 9.0 (-112)
Blake Snell and Trevor May sounds like a pitching duel on the surface, but I wouldn't be so certain.
Of course, baseball fans know the risk with Snell at this point. Behind his gaudy swinging-strike rate (13.4%) lurks plenty of potential for trouble. Namely, that's a 44.3% hard-hit rate and a self-induced 13.4% walk rate. The opposing Dodgers are also no longer a free pass for southpaws; they've posted the eighth-best wRC+ in May (124) against them.
May has his warts, as well. Some sinkerballers can manage the low rate of swinging strikes that he has (6.2%), but just 43.8% of May's balls in play have been ground balls so far. That's leaving plenty to chance, evidenced by a 4.93 SIERA in lieu of his sparkling 2.68 ERA.
The Padres' offense (.680 OPS versus righties) likely just needs to pitch in a bit if L.A. tattoos Snell, but late-game heroics could also save this total. San Diego (4.41) and Los Angeles (4.26) both rank in the bottom half of the league in bullpen xFIP, and these star-studded offenses could deliver after the starters exit.
