FanDuel Pitching Primer: Tuesday 5/2/23
Nailing the pitcher slot is the first step to having success in MLB DFS on FanDuel.
While it's possible to cash if you get a bad outing from a starter, it's markedly easier to do so when you get a good or excellent showing from your pitcher, and it's darn near impossible to take down a contest without a big score from your hurler.
Weighing the importance of a pitcher's skill, salary, matchup and park factors is the game within the game in MLB DFS. This piece is your home for a breakdown of the top pitching options on today's slate.
All betting references come from the MLB lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Top of the Heap
Gerrit Cole, Yankees ($11,500)
In my eyes, there's a three-man top tier, and it's headlined by Cole, whose numbers are down a bit compared to last year but are still really dang good.
Through his first 40 2/3 frames of 2023, Cole has pitched to a 3.54 SIERA, 29.3% strikeout rate and 12.1% swinging-strike rate. He's posted at least 48 FanDuel points in four of his six outings while tossing 100-plus pitches twice.
The matchup isn't perfect but is still pretty appealing. The Cleveland Guardians have a slate-low 3.36 implied total and the third-worst wOBA (.289). At the same time, Cleveland owns the second-lowest strikeout rate (19.6%) and kept Cole to just three punchouts in a matchup earlier this season.
All in all, there's a lot to like about Cole, which is the case each time he starts. Our model projects him for a slate-leading 39.2 FanDuel points.
Joe Ryan, Twins ($11,300)
If you want to slot Ryan as your SP1 tonight, you won't get any pushback from me. Dude has been outstanding.
Over 32 innings this campaign, Ryan boasts a 3.20 SIERA, 29.3% strikeout rate, 13.9% swinging-strike rate and 3.3% walk rate. All of those numbers are an improvement on his 2022 output. The only blemish in Ryan's profile is a 42.5% fly-ball rate, and even that is much better than his 54.1% fly-ball rate from a year ago.
Ryan is at the Chicago White Sox tonight, and the Pale Hose sit 25th in wOBA (.297) with a strikeout rate (22.9%) that's near the league average. However, Chicago's 3.84 implied total is just the seventh-lowest of the slate.
Ryan has scored at least 42 FanDuel points in four of his five starts, and he's a safe bet for another good outing in this nice matchup.
Zac Gallen, Diamondbacks ($11,800)
Gallen has the best 2023 numbers of anyone pitching today, but he's got the worst matchup among the aces.
Across 37 2/3 innings, Gallen has recorded a 2.48 SIERA, 36.2% strikeout rate, 13.9% swinging-strike rate and 3.5% walk rate. Whew. That's about as good as it gets.
The matchup is a tough one, though, as Gallen is at the Texas Rangers. Texas packs a punch, ranking fourth in wOBA (.342), and is just 17th in strikeout rate (22.8%).
Despite that, the Rangers' 3.74 implied total is a number we can feel good about, and Gallen punched out 11 in a difficult matchup with the San Diego Padres two starts ago. He has just as good of a case as Cole and Ryan to be the night's top arm.
Tournament Option
Freddy Peralta, Brewers ($9,900)
I'm not sure how much I'll actually do it, but I'm intrigued by Peralta today despite him throwing at Coors.
Coors is Coors, and it's gotten the best of many of the game's elite pitchers through the years. But the Colorado Rockies' offense isn't that scary this season, even at Coors, as they rank ninth in home wOBA (.338) with the sixth-fewest home dingers (11).
Peralta has registered a 25.6% strikeout rate and 11.8% swinging-strike rate in 28 2/3 frames this year. He's gone for at least 98 pitches in four straight outings, too, so the workload is there.
With so many other viable options on this large slate, Peralta probably isn't worth the risk. With that said, that's what everyone will think, and I can see him having success tonight.
Low-Salary Play
Mason Miller, Athletics ($7,500)
We've got a handful of decent value options, and I like Miller the best of the bunch.
The hard-throwing Oakland Athletics' rookie has a 30.8% strikeout rate and 3.35 SIERA through his first two starts. He's been as advertised.
The negative is that Oakland has capped him at 81 and 86 pitches, which has amounted to just 8 1/3 total innings (4 and 4 1/3) over his two appearances.
It's going to be hard for Miller to much of a fantasy impact unless the leash is lengthened some, but if he can stretch it to even just five frames today, Miller can do serious damage against a Seattle Mariners offense that has the eighth-highest strikeout rate (25.0%) and fifth-worst wOBA (.295). This is the easiest matchup of Miller's career thus far, and we could see him put up his best fantasy score.
Miller is an appealing value pick whose salary will let you go berserk with your bats.
Quick Mound Visits:
Hunter Brown ($10,200): Best of the rest for me. Brown is looking like another Astros success story. Has pitched to a 3.42 SIERA over 50 2/3 career innings, recording a 27.0% strikeout rate. Giants have a league-high 27.1% strikeout rate and 3.58 implied total, the night's second-lowest.
Julio Urias ($9,400): I have a hard time getting jazzed about Urias in DFS. So far in 2023, he's mostly been the same guy he's always been -- a quality hurler who doesn't have elite strikeout upside. A matchup with the Phillies isn't an easy one, but Urias is worth having on your radar.
Tanner Bibee ($8,400): Bibee was dominant in the minors last season, and he shoved in his debut (34.8% strikeout rate, zero walks). The Yankees are without Aaron Judge and weren't a good offense with him, so I don't mind Bibee.
Bryce Miller ($7,600): Draws a soft debut matchup versus an Oakland squad that is 27th in wOBA. Had a 29.9% strikeout rate in Double-A last season but just a 21.2% strikeout rate at that level early this year. Prefer the other Miller.
Michael Wacha ($7,000): Matchup (Reds) and park (Petco) are there. He's a viable value dart throw, for sure. But with a meh 20.4% strikeout rate, Wacha doesn't have the punchout upside of either Miller.
