FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Saturday 10/1/22
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Max Scherzer ($10,600)
At his second lowest salary this season, Scherzer will face an Atlanta Braves' lineup with a .335 weighted on-base average (wOBA), a 25.8% K-rate, and a 43.2% hard hit percentage in their 663 plate appearances versus right-handers.
In his last nine starts, Mad Max has pitched similar to his yearly expected form (3.21 expected Fielding Independent Pitching rating (xFIP), 31.3% K-rate), producing a 3.39 xFIP, a 29.4% strikeout percentage, and a 14.1% swinging strike rate through 57.2 innings.
Considering his personal success in this matchup (five earned runs allowed in 20.1 innings, 28 strikeouts), Scherzer has the track record to meet or surpass his lofty expectations including today's top fantasy projection at 36.2 FanDuel points and a strikeout prediction standing at 6.98.
Dylan Cease ($10,100)
Since his first appearance last month, Cease's FanDuel salary has decreased by 5.5% while Chicago's right-hander has recorded a 3.91 xFIP, a 12.2% swinging strike rate, and seven or more strikeouts in 60% of his five starts.
In an underrated matchup against a San Diego Padres' team with a .292 wOBA and a 22.0% K-rate, Cease ranks second among Saturday's 14 pitchers with a 35.0 fantasy expectation and first in strikeouts (7.05).
Cristian Javier ($10,100)
Despite a 6.3% salary increase, Houston's 25-year old starter still offers substantial value with a 3.05 value rating and a 30.8 FanDuel point projection against a Tampa Bay Rays' unit with a .292 wOBA and a 22.3% K-rate including four hitters with strikeout percentages ranging from 25.0% to 27.7% and contact rates lower than 74.7%.
When analyzing Javier's underrated matchup and recent form in September including a 2.56 xFIP and a sizzling 37.5% K-rate, the Astros' right-hander should be evaluated as a high-ceiling play even at his highest salary since August 31st.
Jordan Montgomery ($8,700)
After recording his worst performance as a Cardinal, Montgomery will attempt to bounce back versus a vulnerable Pittsburgh Pirates' offense with a .298 wOBA, a 26.1% K-rate, and a 74.1% contact percentage.
While some may be concerned with the left-hander's 4.67 earned run average in his last five starts, the 29-year old has clearly out-performed this metric when observing his 3.52 xFIP, 12.1% swinging strike rate, and 3.68 Skilled Interactive Earned Run average.
As numberFire's third ranked pitcher with a 33.5 FanDuel point projection, Montgomery offers enormous upside with a 3.85 value rating and 5.41 expected strikeouts.
In his fifth encounter versus his division competitors, Colorado's Kyle Freeland will face Saturday's top projected offense with a 5.1 run total.
Through his last 54.1 innings, the Rockies' southpaw has been inconsistent with his recent performance in nine starts, accounting for a 4.67 xFIP, a 16.9% K-rate, and an opposing 11.7% barrel percentage.
With fairly neutral splits this season (4.79 xFIP against left-handed batters, 4.44 xFIP versus right-handed bats) and a heavy ground-ball rate (43.6% versus RHH, 35.4% against LHH) , power fly-ball hitters should be utilized first in ideal Dodgers' combinations including Freddie Freeman (.547 expected slugging, 10%), Mookie Betts (9.7% barrel rate, .464 expected slugging), Chris Taylor (10.2% barrel rate, 37.9% fly-ball percentage), Miguel Vargas (9.1% barrel rate), and Trayce Thompson (15.6% barrel rate, .478 expected slugging).
With today's second highest run total at 4.6, the Angels are another elite offense against Rangers' rookie Cole Ragans.
In his first Major League season, the 24-year old left-hander has struggled through 35.0 innings mostly due to his inability to get outs against the opposing side of the plate (5.18 xFIP and .389 wOBA versus RHH).
To best focus on his main weakness, Mike Trout (19.9% barrel rate, .582 expected slugging), Taylor Ward (12.4% barrel rate, .473 expected slugging), Jo Adell (9.9% barrel rate), Max Stassi (9.6% barrel rate), and Luis Rengifo (.255 expected average) should be considered in potential Angels' stacking.
Outside of California, the Brewers also rank as an undervalued offense with a 4.3 run total against Miami's young right-hander Edward Cabrera.
Through his most recent five starts, the 24-year old has regressed towards his expected yearly metrics (4.27 xFIP), recording a 4.66 xFIP, a 10.7% walk percentage, and an opposing 12.1% barrel rate.
Due to his trouble with right-handed batters (.351 wOBA, 4.68 xFIP), Willy Adames (13.2% barrel rate, .326 expected wOBA), Andrew McCutchen (8.7% barrel rate, .323 wOBA), and Hunter Renfroe (11.1% barrel rate, ..325 wOBA) rate best while Christian Yelich (.339 expected wOBA, 7.9% barrel rate), Rowdy Tellez (.353 expected wOBA, 13.1% barrel rate), and Jace Peterson (7.4% barrel rate, 310 expected wOBA) can be mixed in.