3 MLB FanDuel Value Plays to Target on Thursday 9/15/22
With production being highly variable on a night-to-night basis, daily fantasy baseball plays a bit differently than other sports.
As a result of this, the primary method of selecting hitters is to "stack" certain teams in good spots to produce. Most of the top stacks on a given day come with hefty salaries. In addition to that, a vast majority of pitchers with the upside to win tournaments are high-salaried hurlers.
Therefore, crushing your value plays -- whether it be a pitcher unexpectedly piling up strikeouts or a low-salaried batter racking up points -- can be the secret sauce to taking down a tournament.
Which budget options stand out today on FanDuel?
Daniel Vogelbach, 1B, Mets ($2,700)
The New York Mets are up against right-hander JT Brubaker, and that leads me to Dan Vogelbach.
Vogelbach has really good numbers versus righties this season, boasting a .369 wOBA and 44.3% fly-ball rate in the split. He can have success in this matchup as lefties are getting to Brubaker for a .346 wOBA, 38.7% hard-hit rate and 43.0% fly-ball rate.
The Mets are showing a 4.49 implied total, and they might fly under the radar a bit on this slate if the masses flock to the San Diego Padres, St. Louis Cardinals and Houston Astros -- the three squads with the highest implied totals.
Vogelbach and Tyler Naquin ($2,700) are a modest-salaried one-two punch who can work as a mini-stack or as part of a four-man Mets stack.
Kyle Garlick, OF, Twins ($2,100)
I keep going to Kyle Garlick because the Minnesota Twins keep seeing left-handers, which results in Garlick hitting in the meat of the lineup.
Minnesota is facing Daniel Lynch. The Kansas City Royals' left-hander is surrendering a .347 wOBA, 38.9% hard-hit rate and 1.44 taters per nine to righties this season. He's given up a .361 wOBA and 1.77 homers per nine overall in the second half.
Garlick has, at times, led off against southpaws, and he hit third the last time the Twins went up against a lefty. In the split this season, he's posted a .358 wOBA and 43.8% fly-ball rate.
We project Garlick for 11.6 FanDuel points and rate him as the night's second-best point-per-dollar bat (as of early Thursday).
Jon Berti, 2B/3B, Marlins ($2,600)
The Miami Marlins have a 3.56 implied total, so I don't think I can full-on stack them. But I love Jon Berti as a one-off versus Noah Syndergaard.
Berti is an elite base-stealer. He's swiped an MLB-best 34 bags despite playing in only 84 games. While Berti hits for almost zero power, the speed gives him DFS upside, and he'll likely be atop the lineup against Syndergaard.
Thor is having a brutal season, and it's been even worse for him since coming to the Philadelphia Phillies. Overall, he's pitched to a 17.0% strikeout rate and 4.39 SIERA, a pair of career-worst clips. But since being moved to the Phillies via trade, Syndergaard has struggled to a 13.2% strikeout rate and 4.71 SIERA.
Eligible at two positions, Berti is a handy option on tonight's small slate.