MLB Betting Guide: Tuesday 9/6/22
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money – whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
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Over 6.5 (-112): 5-Star Rating Out of 5
Gerrit Cole is going for the Yanks, and he's a big reason why this total is as low as it is. Cole has been outstanding once again in 2022, posting a 2.84 SIERA, 31.3% strikeout rate and 6.1% walk rate. Those are excellent numbers.
However, Cole isn't without some flaws. He's permitting 1.26 dingers per nine overall, and his strikeout rate is down to 27.8% in the second half. He's surrendered at least two earned runs in two of his past three outings. The last time he faced Minnesota -- back on June 9th -- the Twins scored seven earned runs and hit five taters in 2 1/3 innings.
Our model has Minnesota scoring 4.01 runs, and while that may seem a touch high, there's room for the Twins' offense to fall short of that and the over to still hit -- because the Yankees' offense should thrive versus Joe Ryan.
Ryan is a solid pitcher, but he gives up a lot of fly balls (54.5% rate). That's led to 1.45 homers per nine and doesn't bode well for his chances at Yankee Stadium. Ryan allowed five earned runs and two dongs across five innings against the Boston Red Sox last time out. In a pair of second-half games, the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres got to Ryan for a combined 15 -- yes, 15 -- earned runs in 9 2/3 innings, so he's struggled against top-notch lineups.
We project the Yankees to score 4.86 runs.
So, in all, we forecast a total of 8.87 runs to be scored in this one. That's more than two runs over the 6.5-run line. We give the over a 71.7% chance to hit and assign it a five-unit recommendation.
*Editors Note: Twins at Yankees has been postponed due to inclement weather.*
Reds Moneyline (+142): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
Reds +1.5 (-142): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Two teams that are playing out the string meet up tonight at Wrigley, and we see value on the Cincinnati Reds.
The Chicago Cubs are sending Wade Miley to the bump. Miley has thrown only 19 MLB innings this year, but they haven't gone well, with him sporting a 4.82 SIERA, 15.2% strikeout rate and 10.1% walk rate. Miley just isn't good any longer. In 196 1/3 frames since the start of 2020, he's got a 4.61 SIERA and 17.% strikeout rate.
When Miley departs, we'll see a Cubs bullpen that ranks fifth-worst in xFIP (4.47) over the past 30 days.
Justin Dunn gets the ball for the Reds. He's had plenty of issues in the bigs, struggling to the tune of a 5.61 SIERA and 14.5% strikeout rate in 126 career innings. But on the positive, he has a soft matchup versus a Cubs team that is just 21st in wOBA (.294) in the past 30 days.
Our model projects the Cubs to win this game 54.1% of the time. The value, though, is on the Reds' side of things.
Cincy's implied win odds at their +142 moneyline price are just 41.3%. We think they win this game 45.9% of the time. Taking Cincinnati to win is a one-star bet. We also have the Reds -- who are 1.5-run 'dogs -- covering the runline 63.4% of the time and rate it as a two-star wager.