FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Sunday 9/4/22
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Max Fried ($10,300)
After a 1.9% salary decline to his second lowest point since August, numberFire's top ranked pitcher has a great spot against a Miami Marlins' team with an advantageous .270 weighted on-base average (wOBA), 26.5% hard hit percentage, and a 24.2% K-rate against left-handers in the past two seasons.
In his last six starts, Fried has warranted today's top ranking with his premier form through 39.0 innings, accounting for a sparking 2.78 expected Fielding Independent Pitching rating, a 11.9% swinging strike rate, and five more strikeouts in 83% of his recent appearances.
In a matchup versus six Miami hitters with strikeout percentages ranging between 24.2% to 47.1% and wOBAs from 0.264 to 0.284, Atlanta's ace has a clear path to obtain his 6.33 strikeout expectation and 38.4 FanDuel point projection.
Nick Lodolo ($9,700)
At his second highest salary this season, Cincinnati's 24-year old left-hander offers exciting upside with a 27.3% K-rate, a 12.0% swinging strike rate. and a 3.91 xFIP against a Colorado Rockies' lineup averaging just three runs per game on the road.
With six or more strikeouts in 60% of his last ten appearances, Lodolo contains just as much upside among today's top rated options with Sunday's third highest fantasy projection at 31.6 FanDuel points and 6.22 punch-outs in 5.54 expected innings.
Lucas Giolito ($8,200)
After yesterday's one-hit performance by White Sox pitching, Giolito will attempt to continue his team's momentum versus a Minnesota Twins' unit with a 23.3% K-rate including seven hitters with strikeout percentages ranging from 20.4% to 28.5% and contact rates between 67.5% and 78.1%.
While most would be scared of the 28-year old's bloated 5.27 Earned Run Average, Chicago's right-hander is due for a change in luck when comparing his .355 batting average on balls in play to his .278 career mark and his 3.64 xFIP.
With today's highest strikeout prediction at 6.39, Giolito is a semi-risky but exciting option at his third lowest salary this season especially when further analyzing his 31.6 fantasy expectation with a 3.85 value rating.
Despite last night's disappointing one run output, the Mets' offense is an important decision point in their third encounter against Erick Fedde with today's highest projected run total at 5.6 .
In his last 26.2 innings, Washington's ground-ball dependent pitcher (41.9%) has almost matched his subpar seasonal form (4.66 xFIP in 100.1 innings), recording a 4.94 xFIP, a weak 8.6% swinging strike rate, and an opposing 8.8% barrel rate.
With overall neutral splits, New York stacks can contain their best fly-ball power hitters including Pete Alonso (42.8% fly-ball rate, 12.5 barrel rate%), Francisco Lindor (36.9% fly-ball percentage, .420 expected slugging), Dan Vogelbach (11% barrel rate, 41.2% fly-ball percentage), and Eduardo Escobar (47.2% fly-ball rate, 8.5% barrel percentage) while Starling Marte (.430 expected slugging, .276 expected average) and Brandon Nimmo (.337 expected wOBA, .405 expected slugging) are secondary options.
In a matchup versus Josh Winckowski, the Rangers stand as an underrated stack with a 4.7 run total due to the Boston's right-hander concerning 4.66 xFIP and splits against left-handed bats (5.16 xFIP, 1.29 strikeout-to-walk ratio, .376 wOBA).
With this weakness in mind, Corey Seager (11.1% barrel rate, .520 expected slugging), Nathaniel Lowe (9.6% barrel rate, .473 expected slugging), Jonah Heim (6.6% barrel rate), and Kole Calhoun (10.6% barrel rate, .406 expected slugging) are premier plays while Adolis Garcia (.442 expected slugging, 11.7%) remains an option to round out a Rangers' stack with his power from the right side.
After an impressive eight-run output on Saturday night, the Orioles remain a strong choice for stacking with a 4.9 run total against rookie Adrian Martinez.
In his first stint in the Major Leagues, Martinez has accounted for below-average metrics at best, producing a 4.41 xFIP and a 19.7% K-rate while allowing an eye-popping 5.15 xFIP versus the opposing side of the plate.
Ideal Baltimore correlations can begin with Gunnar Henderson (.402 expected wOBA, .548 expected slugging), Anthony Santander (11% barrel rate, .461 expected slugging), Adley Rutschman (8.5% barrel rate, .350 expected wOBA), and Cedric Mullins (38.1% hard hit rate) while a red-hot Ryan Mountcastle (13.6% barrel rate, .499 expected slugging) and Ramon Urias (9.6% barrel rate, .423 expected slugging) can also be mixed in.