3 MLB FanDuel Value Plays to Target on Tuesday 7/12/22
With production being highly variable on a night-to-night basis, daily fantasy baseball plays a bit differently than other sports.
As a result of this, the primary method of selecting hitters is to "stack" certain teams in good spots to produce. Most of the top stacks on a given day come with hefty salaries. In addition to that, a vast majority of pitchers with the upside to win tournaments are high-salaried hurlers.
Therefore, crushing your value plays -- whether it be a pitcher unexpectedly piling up strikeouts or a low-salaried batter racking up points -- can be the secret sauce to taking down a tournament.
Which budget options stand out today on FanDuel?
Yermin Mercedes, C, Giants ($2,000)
Dallas Keuchel is pitching today for the Arizona Diamondbacks, and that gives us a glorious chance to pluck a few low-salary righties from the San Francisco Giants' lineup.
Yermin Mercedes is one such guy who should be of interest to us.
Keuchel owns a 5.03 SIERA, 14.3% strikeout rate and 11.0% walk rate. Keuchel's saving grace has been his usually high ground-ball rate (52.0%), but with him holding a 7.03 ERA, not much is being saved. He probably shouldn't be in the bigs, and righties have mauled him this season for a .385 wOBA and 1.59 dingers per nine.
Mercedes has a .352 wOBA and 42.0% fly-ball rate in 85 career plate appearances versus southpaws. He hit third the last time San Fran saw a lefty. He checks all the boxes we could ask for from a minimum-salaried bat.
Along with Austin Slater ($2,600), Wilmer Flores ($3,000) and Darin Ruf ($2,600), Mercedes is part of a group of Giants who can be had for modest salaries. That's super handy on a slate with Gerrit Cole and Coors.
Robbie Grossman, OF, Tigers ($2,300)
The Detroit Tigers are another offense we can turn to for some low-salary sticks.
Detroit is facing Kris Bubic, and Bubic is struggling in 2022. He's pitched to a 5.25 SIERA and 13.9% walk rate. He's been tagged for 1.66 jacks per nine. And once Bubic is out of the game, he'll hand the keys to a Kansas City Royals bullpen that is dead last in reliever xFIP (4.57).
Grossman, a switch-hitter, has hammered left-handers this season, registering a gaudy .426 wOBA in the split across a small sample of 79 plate appearances. He led off last night against a lefty.
Eric Haase (2,500), Miguel Cabrera ($2,300) and Jonathan Schoop ($2,600) are other viable low-salary Detroit hitters who will swing from the right side. Javier Baez ($3,100) fits the bill, as well, if you have the coin.
Seth Brown, 1B/OF, Athletics ($2,200)
Seth Brown landed in yesterday's value plays piece, and he rates out well again today.
Brown, a lefty, is up against right-hander Glenn Otto. Otto flashed a little last season. It's gone the other way in 2022 as he has been woeful to the tune of a 5.40 SIERA, 17.8% strikeout rate and 14.2% walk rate.
Brown can take advantage. He has slugged his way to a 37.9% hard-hit rate and 42.5% fly-ball rate this year versus righties. He had a 50.0% fly-ball rate in the split a year ago.
Our projections have Brown slated for 12.1 FanDuel points and slot him as the top point-per-dollar hitter (as of early Tuesday).